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Wednesday Night NBA Total Pick

The Woeful Chicago Bulls Travel to Indiana to Face the Pacers

Is it even considered ‘tanking’ if a team is as bad as this year’s Chicago Bulls unit? If not for a three point win over Charlotte on November 17th, the Bulls would be going into the 12/6 free NBA pick on a 15 game losing streak. The Pacers are -9.5 point favorites over Chicago, which is 1-11 on the road this season. While it’s looking like an Indiana whitewash, the better play is in the total, which oddsmakers have set at 207.5.

Do You Play ‘Under’ In Any Game Featuring the Unwatcha-Bulls?

12/6 free NBA pick
Bulls rookie Lauri Markkanen has faded a bit but still has potential for a big game at any time.

For the better part of the past two weeks, the Bulls offense has been anemic. Chicago has scored 95 points or less in five of the last eight games and features the #30 offense in scoring (95.6), 30th in field goal percentage (43.1%), and 26th in three point percentage at just 34.1%. No player on the Bulls scores more than 15 points per game and in the last outing against Cleveland, Chicago starters put up just 61 points.

So we know Chicago will do their part to force the 12/6 free NBA pick to go ‘under’ 207.5, but totals are a two team race. You could look at the first meeting of the season between these two teams to justify another ‘under’. On November 10th Indiana tallied a 105-87 win at Chicago where the Bulls were +3.5 home dogs. In that game the total went under even though Indiana shot over 50% from the field and over 40% from three point. Chicago shot 39.8 from the field and 25.9 from three at home and maybe they just don’t match up with the Indiana defense.

Any Way You Can Justify an ‘Over’ 207.5 Wager?

12/6 free NBA pick
Thaddeus Young might be in line for a big game down low on Wednesday.

For as bad as the Chicago offense has been lately, they did perform well in their last road game tallying 110 in a one point defeat at Denver. Three Bulls had over 19 points in that game as Chicago shot over 50% from the field. The Bulls defense is another reason why the 12/6 free NBA pick may go ‘over.’ Opponents have been ‘seeing red’ as in being on fire – scoring 100+ points against the Bulls in the last 10 games. The Chicago defense is 20th in points allowed, 25th in field goal percentage against, and 27th in three point shooting against.

Not only is the Bulls bad defense trending towards the ‘over’, so is Indiana’s offense. The Pacers are 6th in the NBA in points per game, 4th in shooting percentage, and the second best from beyond the arc. Indiana has scored 115+ in three of the last four games. Not only that, the Pacers defense is 22nd in points against and has allowed 100+ in five of the last six.

12/6 Free NBA Pick – Betting

The 12/6 free NBA pick total has dropped to 207.5 from a 210 open. True the Pacers have given up some points lately, but they’ve also played top offenses such as Toronto (#3), Houston (#2), Orlando (#10), and a talented Boston team. On the flip side, the Bulls recent 100+ point games were against #28 in opposing FG% Sacramento and #29 Denver. Chicago might reach the low 90s tonight, which means Indiana just has to keep it at or below 115 points – which they’ve done six of their past seven.

Pick: Chicago / Indiana *Under 207.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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