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NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football Free Total Pick: Chiefs at Broncos

Number Looks Low at 49 for a Game Featuring Kansas City

Oddsmakers have set the number at 49 for the NFL week 7 Thursday night football free total pick. At first glance that O/U seems on the low side, considering Kansas City’s offense is as elite as their defense is bad. The Denver offense doesn’t scream ‘electrifying’, but things are gradually coming together for Vic Fangio’s team. That being said, is the Denver defense enough to keep this number keen for ‘under’ bettors? ‘

KC Looks Vulnerable In Two Straight Losses

NFL week 7 Thursday Night Football free total pick
The Chiefs need to turn to a heavy dose of Travis Kelce to snap this 2 game losing streak.

Just two weeks ago, the Chiefs looked like they were on a collision course with New England to see who represents the AFC in Super Bowl LIV. In back-to-back weeks Kansas City has lost 13-19 to the Colts and 24-31 to the Texans. All the sudden the Chiefs have to go on the road in a short week for the in a division game for the NFL week 7 Thursday night football free total pick. Is another loss – and thus a low scoring game – on the horizon for KC?

Despite their consecutive losses, Patrick Mahomes has still been playing decent for the Chiefs. He had 321 yards passing in the loss vs. the Colts and 3 TD and one controversial first INT of the season last week against Houston.  It is a short week Thursday for Kansas City, but Tyreek Hill should be even better in his second game back from the injured list. Hill had 5 catches for 80 yards and 2 TDs vs. the Texans. A factor that favors the ‘over’ on Thursday is the fact that the Chiefs will be passing. Kansas City has had only 36 and 53 rushing yards the last two weeks.

Another item that makes this play lean towards an ‘over’ of 49 is Kansas City’s much maligned defense. The Colts did want they want on the ground in week 5, carrying the ball 45 times for 180 yards. The Texans actually topped that last week with 41 carries for 192 while also throwing for 280. KC has allowed at least 28 points in 3 of the last 4 games – and three of those were at Arrowhead Stadium.

Denver Ready for the Upset at Home?

NFL week 7 Thursday night football free total pick
Can Philip Lindsay run free vs. a struggling Chiefs run defense?

The Broncos might be one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They are two last second scores from Chicago and Jacksonville from being 4-2 on the season. The Broncos have also put together back-to-back wins, at the Chargers and vs. the Titans but are still +3 point home underdogs ahead of the NFL week 7 Thursday night football free total pick.

Denver has a defensive minded head coach in Vic Fangio that has led the team to the #4 passing defense in the NFL after 6 games. Against the last two passing offenses they’ve faced, the Broncos have held Phillip Rivers to 211 yards and 2 INT and Aaron Rodgers 235 and 1 TD. The Chiefs won 31-27 at Mile High Stadium a year ago, but Mahomes was held in check with just 304 yards and a TD. Kareem Hunt had 121 yards on the ground for KC in that game but they won’t get that type of rushing game on Thursday.

Denver’s defense will lead this game towards being an ‘under’ play. The Broncos offense is the wild card though. Rich Scangerello’s unit is just 25th in the league in total yards and 26th in points scored. Denver is averaging just 17.7 points per game, but has broken the 20 point barrier in two of the last three. Most of Denver’s offensive success comes from the running game, which is 14th in the league behind Philip Lindsay who has ran for 184 yards and 2 TD on just 30 carries in the last two weeks. Joe Flacco hasn’t thrown for more than 190 yards in either of Denver’s last two wins.

NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football Free Total Pick

For as good as the Denver defense has been this season, they’ve still allowed 24+ points in 3 of 6 games. The Broncos really could have used an extra couple days to prepare for the Chiefs offense though – even though KC is a familiar division rival. The Chiefs defense really could have also used the extra rest to try and be prepared for the Broncos rushing attack. This all adds up to plenty of points in this one.

Pick: Chiefs / Broncos *Over* 49

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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