Our initial week seven NFL free pick has the Chicago Bears visiting Green Bay. The game takes place at Green Bay’s Lambeau Field on Thursday night October 20 at 8:25 p.m. The Bears are 1-5 and in last place in the NFC North while the Pack is 3-2 and in second in that same division.
It’s true that Chicago has a lackluster offense that has scored a total of 101 points. However, Green Bay isn’t doing much better as they have put just 114 points on the board. The Packers have allowed 113 points, while the Bears have given up 143. Those stats make the point differentials between these two teams very clear, as the Packets are a -1.0 and Chicago’s at -42.
Chicago Offense vs. Packers D
QB Brian Hoyer has had a touch time hanging onto the football. He’s had three fumbles. But his passing has been accurate (68.8 COMP%) and he has tossed six touchdowns and no interceptions. Although WR Alshon Jeffery (29 REC, 487 YDs, 16.8 AVG) may not have any touchdowns, but he’s been playing well despite a hamstring problem. WR Eddie Royal, who has two touchdown catches, has been ruled out for this game. Plus, TE Zach Miller, who has three scoring catches, is questionable. The running backs are also thin due to injury. Look for Jordan Howard, who is averaging 5.0 YPA, to get the call.
On defense, Green Bay needs LB Nick Perry, who has 4.5 sacks and three TFL thus far, to put some pressure on Hoyer. Also, LB Jake Ryan, with four TFL, has to bring on the pressure. They do have a hefty 27 TFL as a team. Their run D is very effective, but they are struggling at stopping the air game. The Packers are thin in the corner back area due to injury.
Green Bay Offense vs. Bears Defense
There’s bad news for Packer QB Aaron Rodgers. Green Bays’ primary running back, Eddie Lacy, is out. Lacy is averaging 5.1 YPA. The Packs’ second leading rusher, ironically, is Rodgers. Still, the quarterback’s value is when he’s in the pocket. Still, Rodgers has struggled this season, completing 60.2% of his passes and tossing four picks while getting sacked nine times. He does have 10 TD passes. Half of those scoring passes have gone to WR Jordy Nelson. Nelson, the team’s leading receiver, is averaging 12.0 YPC.
Injuries have hurt the Bears at linebacker. DB Tracy Porter (2 INTs, 5 PD) is questionable for Thursday night. LB Willie Young is healthy, and that is a big deal. Young has six of Chicago’s 13 sacks, while LB Jerrell Freeman, who has four TFL and leads the team in tackles with 53 including 38 solo bring downs, is questionable. Depending on who shows up for this
Free Pick: Chicago Bears visiting Green Bay Packers
In developing our free pick for the Chicago Bears visiting Green Bay, we’re eying the Bears at +9.0. Note, if you want to bet the Pack, take them at -7.5. Green Bay has had a tough time beating the spread. Technically, you could take the Bears at +9 and the Pack at -7.5 and win both. We do think Green Bay will win, but not by 10. Take the Bears at +9.0.