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9/17 NFL Free Pick

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

It appears the Jacksonville Jaguars are the early Rodney Dangerfield’s of the NFL. Even after a thorough week one domination of the Houston Texans on the road, oddsmakers are giving #Sacksonville no respect as 1 point home dogs in week two. Sure, it’s easy to think that the season opener was a fluke and that these are the ‘same old Jaguars’, but their week two opponent Tennessee wasn’t exactly impressive in their week one loss which is what makes the 9/17 NFL free pick so intriguing.

Does Tennessee Turn It Around as Slight Road Favorites

The Titans have high hopes on the season but fans have a bitter taste in their mouth after a 26-16 season opening home loss to Oakland as -2.5 favorites. What’s especially disheartening is the manner in which the Titans lost, managing just 3 FG’s after a first quarter Marcus Mariota 10 yard TD run. Nobody stood out on the Titans offense as DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined for just 69 nice rushing yards.

Murray was barreled up like a Tennessee whiskey against Oakland

Granted the Raiders have a solid defensive front – but Jacksonville’s may be even better. That’s what they showed in week one at least compiling 10 sacks and holding the Texans to 203 yards total. What’s worse (for Tennessee at least) was that the Jaguars defensive showing was kind of expected. They added Calais Campbell, Barry Church, and A.J. Bouye to bolster the squad in the offseason and are finally seeing contributions from high draft picks such as Dante Fowler and Myles Jack. This was already a defense that ranked 6th in the NFL last year in yards per game (321.7).

Can the Jacksonville Offense Support Their Great Defense?

The question all year for the Jaguars and in the 9/17 free NFL pick is going to be if their much-maligned QB Blake Bortles can manage games and score enough points to counter the strong defensive showings. Rookie Leonard Fournette proved in his NFL debut that Bortles might not have to. The #4 pick gained 100 yards on the ground and scored a TD to lead a rushing attack that gained 155 yards total against a strong Houston front. Bortles threw for only 125 yards but did have a TD – and perhaps most important didn’t have an interception.

The Titans defense allowed 359 yards to the Raiders offense last week including 262 yards to Derek Carr through the air. The Jacksonville offense isn’t as potent as Oakland’s but Fournette is a very similar runner to the Raiders’ Marshawn Lynch. “Beast Mode” was able to collect a respectable 76 yards on 18 carries – and he hadn’t played football in a year.

9/17 NFL Free Pick Betting Matchup

The line opened as a pick but wagers have pushed Tennessee to -1 road favorites. Bettors seem to be enamored with that number as 70% of the money is on Tennessee. Last week home dogs were 3-2 ATS. The total at this is set at 41 and it should be a very defensive minded, running game oriented contest making the under look good.

What the 9/17 NFL free pick comes down to is if you think Tennessee can turn it around and if you assume the Jaguars week one performance was a fluke. One team has officially arrived, and this is the last time they’re going to “get no respect” from the oddsmakers.

Pick = Jacksonville +1

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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