Believe it or not, somebody besides the New England Patriots could be in first place besides the AFC East if Buffalo pulls off a win over New York on Thursday night. Well, technically they’ll be in a tie but still it’s a sign of how far the Bills have come under new head coach Sean McDermott. For the NFL Week 9 Thursday night total play the number has been set at 42.5.
The Bills have won two in a row while the Jets have returned to being the Jets and have dropped four straight. Buffalo is favored by just three in this matchup which seems kind of iffy. However, there is a really strong play on the total tonight – but which way?
NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Total Play – A Case for the “Under.”
The Bills have a strong defense and a solid running game which is usually a great case for an under play. The Bills actually have the #3 rush defense in the league and last week held the high-powered Oakland offense to just 14 points. The Bills picked off Raiders QB Derek Carr twice adding to their league best +14 turnover margin. Buffalo has allowed the third fewest points in the league and opponents have only scored 20 or more points twice in seven contests.
Contributing to a solid ‘under’ play is the fact that the Jets really don’t do anything well on offense. NYJ is 23rd in total yards, 21st in passing, 22nd in rushing, and 21st in points scored. The Bills have shown a dedication to the run in the last game as Lesean McCoy carried the ball a season high 27 times. That should keep the clock churning in the NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Total Play against a Jets defense giving up 128.2 rush YPG, 27th in the NFL.
— Eric Allison (@erock5454) November 2, 2017
Any Way This Matchup Goes ‘Over’?’
One thing that could effect the over/under is if Buffalo’s offense is simply too good and scores at will. Last week’s Thursday night football total pick for example went over 37.5 simply for the fact that the Baltimore Ravens scored all 40 points. Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor has been efficient lately, throwing for 443 yards and 2TD against 0 INT the last two since the bye week. Taylor’s highest passing output of the season was 268 yards against Tampa Bay two weeks ago but he should have success against a Jets D giving up the 26th most yards in the league.Plus, the Bills just acquired a new weapon for their QB in 6’5″ receiver Kelvin Benjamin who comes over from the Panthers.
Something contributing to a possible over for the NFL week 9 Thursday night total play is the fact that the Jets haven’t been horrible the past couple weeks on offense. QB Josh McCown has thrown for 5TD and 1INT the last two weeks against the #7 Miami defense and the #11 Atlanta defense. Buffalo is just 22nd in total yards and for all the Bills’ prowess against the run, they are 29th in pass yards allowed with 266.4 per game.
The New York Jets are 7-0 ATS since September 21, 2015 after a game in which they had 9 or fewer incompletions.
— Jeffrey Keim (@OskeimSports) November 2, 2017
NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Total Play Betting
Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone under tonight’s 42.5 total play including a 21-12 Bills win in the season opener. With all the hype surrounding the Bills defense lately, this feels like a great spot for a Jets upset. The point spread indicates a possible Jets win too as 78% of the bettors are on Buffalo – yet the line has dropped to -3 from a -3.5 open. The biggest concern in the total was the Jets scoring points against the Bills D but since it looks like they will, assume that Buffalo can match.
Pick: Buffalo Bills / New York Jets ‘Over’ 42.5