5 Super Bowl Betting Patterns You Need to Know Before Betting

Super Bowl Betting PredictionsNow that the Super Bowl is ready to kickoff, let’s quickly analyze some Super Bowl betting patterns so that you can turn a profit on the big game.

Super Bowl XLIX features the two number one seeds from the AFC and NFC conference. The New England Patriots (12-4) handily defeated the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC championship while the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (12-4) slipped by the upstart Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship.

1. Super Bowl Favorites Have Lost 5 of the Past 7 Super Bowls
In fact, Super Bowl favorites have lost three straight Super Bowls. Could this be bad news for the Patriots? Most online sportsbooks have the Patriots listed as a 1 to 2 point favorite. Last year, the Seahawks were as much as an 8.5 point underdog to the Broncos. Could the pattern of underdogs winning the Super Bowl continue?

2. Super Bowl Favorites Lose Often Against the Spread
When you break down the past 15 Super Bowls from the perspective of a sports bettor, you realize that a pattern begins to emerge: favorites often lose against the spread. In the 2000s, the Super Bowl favorites were an abysmal 3-6-1 against the spread.

This decade, Super Bowl favorites haven’t faired much better as their record is currently 1-4 against the spread. For those of you who like math, these stats show us that the Super Bowl favorite is 4-10-1 against the spread over the past 15 years.

3. The NFC Has Beat the Spread 6 of the Past 7 Super Bowls
An interesting pattern that has occurred over the past 7 Super Bowls is that the NFC has beaten the spread in each Super Bowl appearance except one. The lone exception was in Super Bowl XLVII when the San Francisco 49ers were 4.5 point favorites. They subsequently lost to the Ravens by 3 points. Last year, the Seahawks were underdogs by 8.5 points according to some sports books; the Seahawks went on to win by the game by 35 points.

4. MVP Betting: Quarterbacks Have Won Last 6 of 8
Super Bowl prop bets have become a popular wager for casual sports bettors. Super Bowl patterns indicate that 6 of the last 8 Super Bowl MVPs played the quarterback position. Last year may have been the exception to the rule as Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith was awarded the MVP award. It’s extremely rare for a defensive player to win this honor. Stats show that if you are looking for a safe prop bet, pick one of the two starting quarterbacks to win the award.

5. The National Anthem as a Super Bowl Prop Bet
Sportsbooks have become creative with their Super Bowl prop bets. Sportsbooks such as Bovada offer over 500+ prop bets on this year’s Super Bowl. One of the most talked about prop bets for the Super Bowl is the wager concerning the total duration of the United States’ national anthem.

The line at many online sportsbooks currently sits at UNDER/OVER 2 minutes and 5 seconds. Some sportsbooks have the line set at 2 minutes flat with adjusted betting odds. Considering the fact that only 2 performances of the national anthem at the Super Bowl have went over 2 minutes total in the past 8 years, sharps are notoriously taking the UNDER on this prop bet.

Fun Fact: Idina Menzel will be singing the national anthem. Youtube shows us that Ms. Menzel sang the Star Spangled Banner at the 2014 MLB All Star game in 1 minute and 58 seconds flat.

Kevin Green

I've been using online sportsbooks since 2001 and have worked in the sports and igaming industry since 2005.

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