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Week 3 TCU at Purdue Free Pick: Saturday September 14th

Boilers Opened as Favorites But Now Find Themselves Home Dogs

The line for the Week 3 TCU at Purdue free pick has been all over the map so far. The Boilermakers opened as 2 point favorites at home but have since been bet to 2 point ‘dogs vs. the Horned Frogs. Texas Christian was idle last week, but do you give the points as TCU goes on the road for the 1st time this year?

What is This TCU Squad?

Week 3 TCU at Purdue free pick
Expect a big week from Jalen Reagor and the TCU passing attack but will it be enough?

Even though it’s week 3 of the college football season, what coach Gary Patterson has in his Horned Frogs team is still very much a mystery. The Horned Frogs started their season with a 39-7 win over Arkansas -Pine Bluff, but did so as gigantic -55 point favorites. There’s not a whole lot to take from that cake walk on either side of the ball for TCU.

What we do know is that the Horned Frogs are going to be very defensive-centric in the week 3 TCU at Purdue free pick. This is a unit that ranked 24th in scoring defense a year ago but returns just 4 starters on that side of the ball. ARPB had just 215 total yards in the opener, but Purdue’s offense is in a whole different category than the Golden Lions’.

The O/U for Saturday night’s game is 53 but can the TCU offense hold up their end of the bargain? Patterson really hasn’t settled on a QB yet as Max Duggan (16/23, 185) and Alex Delton (10/22, 119) both saw a lot of snaps last week. Purdue has given up a ton of passing yards this season which should also mean a big day for Jalen Reagor who had 5 grabs for 71 yards in the opener. Reagor had 72 catches for 1,061 yards last season.

Line Moving Away From Purdue With Sindelar’s Status Uncertain

Week 3 TCU at Purdue free pick
There’s a lot of line movement for the TCU at Purdue game as Boilers QB Elijah Sindelar suffered a concussion last week and his status is uncertain.

The Boilermakers opened the week 3 TCU at Purdue free pick as -2 home favorites but are facing an uncertain situation with their QB Elijah Sindelar which has moved the line to Horned Frogs -3. The Senior Purdue QB is officially listed as probable for Saturday’s game but is more likely a GTD after suffering a concussion a week ago vs. Vanderbilt.

It’s a no-brainer that Purdue would much rather have Sindelar in the lineup than not. He threw for 423 yards in the opener vs. Nevada and backed that up with an amazing 509 yard performance last week. Sindelar has 9TD to 3 INT through 2 games but is up against a very good TCU defense on Saturday. Then again, a garden gnome could man the shotgun and still find star Boilermaker Rondale Moore who had 13 catches for 220 yards last week. The sophomore could be quickly turning into a dark horse Heisman candidate.

TCU’s defense vs. Purdue’s offense is going to dominate Saturday night’s game trends but the X-factor is the Boilermakers’ defense. This is a unit that gave up 27 second half points in a 31-34 loss at Nevada (when Purdue was an 11 point road favorite) and allowed 491 yards – 420 through the air – last week vs. Vanderbilt. Purdue has a quick scoring offense which puts their defense on the field a lot – but having the nation’s 124th ranked passing defense is not a winning formula.

Week 3 TCU at Purdue Free Pick Betting

The Purdue defense needs some work but they probably do benefit from TCU using a two QB attack that tends to kill momentum. Sindelar’s health is a concern, especially against the tough Horned Frogs defense. This game just feels like a bad spot for TCU. They opened with a tomato can and then have had to sit for a week. Hard to get in a groove that way, especially heading into West LaFayette for a Saturday night game under the lights.

Pick: Purdue Boilermakers +2

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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