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Stanley Cup Lightning vs Stars Game 4 Betting Preview

Tampa Bay Seems to Have Found Their Stride

Tampa Bay has shifted the momentum of the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals heading into Lightning vs Stars game 4 betting. After dropping the opener 4-1, TB has rattled off 3-2 and 5-2 wins to take a 2-1 series lead. Dallas has been slow out of the gates the last two and looks like a team overmatched at this point in the postseason.

The line stays true to what it has the first three games with Tampa Bay at -161. The Stars are +140, underdogs for the 16th straight time (9-7 over that span). Wednesday’s 5-2 Tampa Bay win was the first time in the last eight games that a Stars game ended cashing for the ‘over’. The number is at 5 again for game four.

Tampa Bay the Play Here on Out?

The Lightning were stunned in a 4-1 loss to open this series, but it wasn’t unexpected. Tampa Bay had just one night off after their elimination game against the Islanders two days prior while the Stars had been resting for four days after sending the Golden Knights home. The Lightning also had to travel to Edmonton from their hub city of Toronto. Tampa Bay played their first tilt at Rogers Place, where Dallas had already logged 21 games.

Once the Lightning worked out the kinks in game one, they’ve looked dominant the last two. Tampa Bay has especially excelled at getting off to a fast start, taking a 3-0 lead in the 1st period of game one and being up 3-1 a minute into the 2nd on Wednesday. Tampa Bay got a boost from Steven Stamkos returning and scoring a goal on his first and only shot of the playoffs, but the captain reinjured himself and is likely out for the duration of the postseason.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has shown in the last two games that him allowing 3 Dallas goals on just 19 shots in the opener was a fluke. The Lightning goaltender has stopped 49 of 53 shots (.925) the last two games, allowing two goals or less in eight of his last 10 this postseason.

Where Does Dallas Find Momentum?

It seems like Dallas knows they are up against it heading into Lightning vs Stars game 4 betting. Rick Bowness’ team surprised Tampa Bay in the opener winning 4-1 as +135 underdogs, but all that really may have done is wake a sleeping giant.

To the Stars’ credit, they did bounce back from consecutive losses to Colorado to conquer game 7 and move on to the Western Conference Finals. That exhausting fast-paced series with the Avs combined with a physical five games in eliminating Vegas last round looks to be taking its toll on Dallas now.

There’s no Stars player more physically or mentally worn down right now than Anton Khudobin. The Dallas goaltender has put the team on his back the last two rounds, but he’s also human. Khudobin faced 30+ SOG in five of seven games vs. Colorado, including 37+ in three games. Vegas fired 109 shots at the Dallas goaltender over the last three games of the Western Conference Finals and so far Tampa Bay has put up 36, 31, and 29 shots.

Lightning vs Stars Game 4 Betting Free Pick

The x-factor the last two games seems to be Anton Khudobin, a back-up who has been involved in a lot of high-stress games as of late. On the flip-side, Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a model of consistency, taking every minute in goal. The Stars stole game 1, but Tampa Bay has settled in nicely for what will be a quick trip to hoisting the Stanley Cup.

Free Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+170)

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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