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Super Bowl Pick: Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots

Looks to be a Tight Game Tonight

This is it, the final game of the 2017-18 NFL season. Our Super Bowl LII free pick comes down to the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles at the AFC’s New England Patriots. It’s the two top seeds in the league battling tonight at 6:30 p.m. E.T. The teams have had time, two weeks, to get relatively healthy. The game, which will be played indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN, should be close throughout. Our Philadelphia plays New England Super Bowl LII free pick has the Pats favored by anywhere from 4.0 to 5.0 and the over/under at either 48.5 of 49.0. Here’s a look at the game and our picks for the first half and game, as well as our over/under prediction.


Too many people have underestimated this team’s offense and defense. They have the best run D in the NFL and their corners and safeties are sick. On offense, Foles is dynamic when he has the option to either run or pass. His rollout from the pocket puts opponent defenses in tough positions. He’s 14 of 16 in the postseason when running the option. If he can do this successfully, it will help to spread New England’s defense thin. Former Pat’s RB LeGarrette Blount has not done much for the Eagles in the playoffs. If he can pick up 80 yards today, that will help.

On defense, it’s about four things, and they are connected to Tom Brady. The Philly D must:

  • Pressure Brady and sack him
  • Take away Amendola and Gronkowski as receivers
  • In the red zone, defend the end of the end zone and the middle field versus pass
  • Slow down the tempo of the game


What sort of Tom Brady show will we see today? I’d be surprised if the Patriots start fast. They rarely do. But they will make adjustments by the second half. Brady can but a dent in the Philly defense with his up tempo gme which allows opponents close to no time to sub and set up. He’s got a slew of running/back receivers. Those guys, which includes RBs James White and Rex Burkhead, will be invaluable, especially if Amendola and Gronkowski are covered. Look for RB Deion Lewis to pick up some valuable yards in this game. The O-line must control Philadelphia’s fast and dynamic pass rush.

The defense has to stop Foles on the option. This is essential to a Patriot win. If they can do so, that will certainly help New England control the game. Consistent play, the ability to make adjustments, and stopping the Eagles on third down are keys to success.

Three Takeaways to Consider

Our trio of takeaways for our Philadelphia plays New England Super Bowl LII free pick are:

  1. New England has never won a Super Bowl by more than six points
  2. The Pats are not a very good first-half team
  3. Brady has more than 50 come-from-behind career wins

Philadelphia Plays New England Super Bowl LII Free Pick

Both teams were 13-3 in the regular season. Both teams can generate points. Both has solid defenses. We’re giving the Pats the edge on offense and the Eagles the edge on defense. Both have stellar kickers. Our Philadelphia plays New England Super Bowl LII free pick is the Eagles at +5.0 for the game and Philly at +3.0 for the first half. We like the over at 48.5. Anticipated score: Philadelphia 24 and New England 27. Best of luck to both teams and to you!

First Half Pick: Eagles at +3.0
Game Pick Spread: Eagles at +5.0
Over/Under: Over 48.5


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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