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NFL Pick: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Monday Night Football Pats Look to Extend Winning Streak to Nine

Tonight, Dec 11, 2017, the AFC East-leading New England Patriots (10-2 Overall, 6-0 Away) play the third-place Miami Dolphins (5-7 Overall, 3-3 Home). Our Patriots play Dolphins 2017 Monday Night Football pick has New England at anywhere from -10.0 to -12.0 and the over/under as low as 48.0 and as high as 49.0. When these two teams last met on Nov 26 it was the Pats 35 and the Fins 17. New England has won its last eight games, while Miami is 1-4 for its last five. They did win their last game, which was against Denver, 35-9.

New England Overall

QB Tom Brady (68.5 COMP%, 26 TDs, 4 INTs) is passing on average for over 300 yards per game. He will be without Rob Gronkowski who is serving his suspension. WRs Brandin Cooks (53 REC, 16.7 AVG, 5 TDs) and Danny Amendola (46 REC, 10.6 AVG, 2 TDs) will both play. Although WR Chris Hogan (33 REC, 13.3 AVG, 5 TDs) is questionable, he is expected to be on the field tonight. The team’s two top running back, Dion Lewis and Mike Gillisee, are both questionable. That means that RB Rex Burkhead (55 ATT, 4.4 YPA, 3 TDs) may see the ball quite a bit. The Pats are averaging 29.0 PPG.

New England’s D is allowing 18.6 PPG. They come to the game with 11 picks, 56 PD, and 28 sacks. The defense has forced seven fumbles and recovered six. They have just 19 TFL. CB Malcolm Butler (2 INTs, 11 PD, 2 FF) is a top performer and ready to play, while sack-leader Trey Flowers (46 TCKLs, 6 Sacks, 2 FF) is questionable. Top tackler Kyle Van Noy, who leads the team with 73 tackles, is out. Flowers also has 5.5 sacks and four TFL.

Patriots Summary

  • Brady is a top performer
  • Pats have injuries on both sides of the ball
  • Gronk is suspended.

Miami Overall

The Dolphins are averaging 17.4 PPG. QB Jay Cutler (63.9 COMP%, 15 TDs, 11 INTs) is struggling. He does have two premium targets in WRs Kenny Stills (48 REC, 15.3 AVG, 6 TDs) and Jarvis Landry (80 REC, 8.7 AVG, 6 TDs). However, the two receivers have fumbled a total of five times with each losing one. RB Jay Ajayi leads what is a fairly weak ground attack. He’s averaging 3.4 YPA and does not yet have a TD. The O-line is weak having allowed 27 sacks and 53 TFL.

The defense, which is giving up 24.8 PPG, has just 21 sacks 38 PD, and seven picks. They do have a dozen forced fumbles and have recovered six. DE Cameron Wake is tops on the team with eight sacks, while LB Kiko Alonso leads the team with six TFL. Safety Reshad Jones, who leads the team with 85 tackles, has recovered three fumbles.

Dolphins Summary

The three main takeaways for our Patriots play Dolphins 2017 Monday Night Football pick are:

  • Offense is lacking
  • Defense is taxed
  • Cutler must connect with two top WRs

Three Major Takeaways

  1. Pats offense is without Gronk and nursing injuries
  2. Miami offense is struggling
  3. Pats D edges Fins D

Our New England at Miami Free Picks

The New England offense is crippled, and the Miami defense is porous. Our Patriots play Dolphins 2017 Monday Night Football pick likes New England at -10.0. Along with taking the Pats, we are also going for the under at 49.0. Both teams are missing key offensive plays and both clubs have others that are compromised.

Pick Summary: New England at -10.0 and under 49.0

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pmroczka

Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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