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NCAAF Week 11 Buffalo at Miami Ohio Betting Preview

Tuesday Night MAC-tion

The week 11 Buffalo at Miami Ohio contest has the RedHawks a -7.5 favorite at home on Tuesday night. Both of these squads are chasing 4-1 Kent State in the MAC East, with 3-2 Miami Ohio really needing the win to stay in the hunt with the Golden Flash. 2-3 Buffalo can pretty much cancel their hopes for a berth in the conference championship with a loss.

The Bulls offense has come alive with 38+ points in three of the last four games. Tuesday’s betting total is 57 but Miami Ohio has the #9 scoring offense in the MAC but the #2 scoring defense.

Bulls Run Game Has Been Productive

What’s impressive about Buffalo being the 2nd highest scoring team in the MAC (33.7 ppg) is that they get most of their offensive production through the ground game. The Bulls lost 56-44 to Bowling Green last time out as -13.5 favorites, but still racked up 222 yards rushing despite being down 14-0 in the 1st quarter.

Dylan McDuffie ran for 166 yards and 2 TD in the loss to Bowling Green, his third straight game with 110+ yards on the ground. McDuffie has a rushing TD in 7 of 9 games this season but now has a matchup with a Miami Ohio rush defense that is 2nd in the MAC in giving up 137.3 ypg.

With Buffalo scoring 44 points last game and still losing that raises some obvious questions surrounding the Bulls defense. The Falcons had 221 yards on the ground and Bowling Green QB Matt McDonald hit on 13 of 19 passess with 4 TDs. Bulls QB Kyle Vantrease is questionable for the week 11 Buffalo at Miami Ohio matchup after injuring his knee vs. Bowling Green, although the Bulls were idle last week which provides extra recovery time.

Miami Ohio Defense Gets a Challenge

The RedHawks have the #3 total defense in the MAC but they’ll have a task ahead of them on Tuesday night against a Buffalo squad that has put up over 33 points/game. Miami Ohio had a rare defensive letdown in their last game, falling 35-33 at Ohio as -7 point favorites.

Miami Ohio had held opponents to 21 points or less in four straight games prior to the loss to the Bobcats. Ohio had their success through the air as Kurtis Rourke went 23 of 32 for 288 yards and 3 TD. De’Montre Tuggle also had 69 yards on 11 carries for the Bobcats with 2 TD but Buffalo is going to run the ball a lot more than that.

Miami of Ohio couldn’t pick up the win last week despite 492 yards and 5 TDs from QB Brett Gabbert. Those were huge numbers for Gabbert who hadn’t thrown for more than 207 yards in five games this season, but Buffalo is more vulnerable on the ground (9th in MAC) than through the air (4th).

Week 11 Buffalo at Miami Ohio Pick

The Bulls dominated this game at home last season, winning 42-10 as -7 point favorites. Vantrease threw for 353 yards and 4 TDs in that matchup so having him back for Tuesday’s game would be huge for Buffalo. The Bulls also ran for 203 yards in that game with two different backs having 70+ yards. This just looks like a solid matchup for Buffalo, especially getting the points.
Buffalo 38 – Miami Ohio 31

Free Pick: Buffalo +7.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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