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NFL Week 16 Bengals at Dolphins Free Pick

Cincinnati Slight Favorites Sunday Even With No Incentive to Win

The NFL week 16 Bengals at Dolphins free pick isn’t the most glamorous one, these teams are a combined 4-24 on the year. The spread of Cincinnati -1.5 on the road is kind of intriguing though considering the Bengals are just one loss away from clinching the #1 pick in the 2020 draft. Why is Cincinnati favored again?

Backing the Bengals at This Time of Year?

NFL week 16 Bengals at Dolphins free pick
Is Dalton making his penultimate start for Cincinnati in Week 16?

It’s been a rough go of it for Cincinnati this season, with just one win to show for the 2019 campaign. The Bengals do have some close losses on the season such as 10-16 to Pittsburgh, 10-17 at Oakland, 17-23 at Baltimore and 23-26 vs. Arizona. For the most part this is a team that has looked very bad though, including last week’s 13-34 loss to the Patriots as +10.5 ‘dogs.

The good news for the Bengals is that Miami isn’t exactly dominant on defense, ranking 30th in total yards allowed and dead last in points allowed. Where the Dolphins really give up chunks is vs. the run as their 140.9 ypg allowed are 2nd worst in the league – albeit the Bengals are worse. Joe Mixon (calf) should go for Cincinnati in the NFL week 16 Bengals at Dolphins free pick which will be a boost.

Can Zac Taylor’s team get anything going on offense behind Andy Dalton? He did help engineer the team’s lone win of the year, 22-6 vs. NYJ three weeks ago. Dalton threw 4 INTs last week vs. New England though. Eli Manning was 20/28 vs. the Dolphins secondary last week, but Miami did force 3 INTs vs. the Giants which doesn’t bode well for the turnover prone Dalton.

Dolphins Defense Going to Cost Them Here?

NFL week 16 Bengals at Dolphins free pick
Can Fitzpatrick lead the Dolphins to a win on Sunday?

Mixon has ran for 136 and 146 yards the last two weeks for Cincinnati. The Dolphins gave up 112 yards and 2 TD to Saquon Barkley last week and have some definite problems facing the rush. Miami did hold Philadelphia to 92 yards on 19 carries in their last home game though, a 37-31 win as +10.5 underdogs.

Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was absolutely great in that upset over the Eagles, throwing for 365 and 3 TDs. The veteran has actually guided the Dolphins to 20+ points in five straight games, unfortunately the team is just 1-4 over that span. One area where the Bengals have a huge advantage in this matchup is the running game. Fitzpatrick is the team’s leading rusher with just 219 yards. Patrick Laird has ran for 45+ in two straight though.

The total for Sunday’s game is 45, on the high side considering Cincinnati’s offense averages just over 15 ppg. The Bengals have been held to 13 points or less in 5 of the last 7, but Miami will give up some points, surrendering 30+ in 4 of 5.

NFL Week 16 Bengals at Dolphins Free Pick

There are some thoughts that Cincinnati has no problem losing this week, securing the #1 draft pick and then wanting to close out the season with a win over rival Cleveland. Miami coach Brian Flores has said that his team is not on board with tanking this one, even though a loss would be beneficial with Washington, New York, and Detroit all also having 3 wins.

Pick: Dolphins +1.5

 

 

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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