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NFL Week 13 Play of the Day

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears

It’s Jimmy Garoppolo day in Chicago as the San Francisco quarterback gets his first start for the franchise that traded for him on Halloween. It might be an easier settling in than normal for Garoppolo beings that the start comes in Chicago, 30 miles from where the signal caller grew up in Arlington Heights. The NFL week 13 free pick has seen plenty of line movement and could a disgruntled Bears crowd actually be a home field disadvantage?

The reason Chicago fans are on edge is because they are fed up with coach John Fox’s conservative game plan. Most experts agree that Fox is coaching his last five games (or less) with the team and fans want to see rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky get a chance to be unleashed. The 49ers actually played a large part in Chicago’s drafting of the youngster as it was San Francisco who the Bears traded from #3 to #2 for the chance to take (what they hope is) a franchise signal caller.

San Francisco +2.5 the Right Play?

The 49ers were able to get Thomas at #3 as well as a slew of Chicago picks in the draft day trade.

The 49ers are 0-5 on the road this season and haven’t traveled in over a month.playing three home games and a bye. The 49ers are coming off a 13-24 loss to Seattle in which they threw for just 196 yards and ran for 84. That performance came with C.J Beathard under center however and the 49ers have a burst of excitement with Garoppolo getting his first start for the team.

The 49ers problem for the NFL week 13 free pick has been scoring as they’ve tallied 13 points or less in four of the past five games. The Bears have one of the better defenses in the league, ranking 12th in total yards, 12th in passing, and 16th in rushing yards allowed. That Chicago defense is much less intimidating with the loss of Leonard Floyd however and the Bears have allowed 23+ points in the last three contests.

Does Chicago Win (and Cover) at Home?

NFL week 13 free pick
Trubisky and the Chicago offense has largely been handcuffed by their own coaching staff this season.

The Bears have dropped four in a row and are just 2-4 at home this season. Chicago doesn’t exactly run a high powered offense either as they’ve been held to 17 points or less in eight of 11 games this year. Trubisky has thrown for over 180 yards just once in seven starts as the Bears boast the second to last passing offense in the NFL.

The 49ers do give up some points, ranking 27th in the NFL with 25.8 allowed. Chicago has a solid running game behind Jordan Howard too as they average 120.4 yards on the ground per game (8th in NFL). San Francisco does allow less than 100 yards rushing on the season however.

NFL Week 13 Free Pick

There is going to be some familiarity on the field as Bears DC Vic Fangio held the same position with San Francisco for four years. 49ers K Robbie Gould is Chicago’s all-time leading scorer and Garoppolo will be getting the start in front of dozens of family and friends from nearby Arlington Heights.

The line for the NFL week 13 free pick has dropped from -4.5 to Chicago -2.5 as 62% of the public is on the 49ers as road dogs. There’s always some risk betting on a West coast team heading to the Midwest for a noon game but it’s interesting to note that four of the five 49ers road losses have been by three points or less. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan should have a masterful game plan drawn up for Garoppolo especially as Chicago is decimated by injuries in their secondary.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +2.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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