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NFL Week 13 Bears at Lions Free Pick: Total 37

Betting on a Low Scoring Affair Would Be the Easy Route?

You know it’s bad when a total of 37 seems on the high side for the NFL week 13 Bears at Lions free pick. Chicago has almost no offense and a strong defense while Detroit is forced to go to their 3rd string signal caller who has yet to throw a pass in his professional career. Is low scoring the way to play this one – or is that O/U just too easy?

Trubisky Likes Playing Detroit

NFL week 13 Bears at Lions free pick
There’s blood in the water for Chicago on Thursday vs. an inexperienced QB.

He’s faced his fare share of criticism on the season, but Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky has a great chance to put at least a fraction of that to rest with a big game in front of a national audience. The Bears QB is facing the right team to do that against, as he went 16/23 with 3TD and 0INT vs. the Lions three weeks ago. Trubisky missed the Thanksgiving game vs. the Lions last season with an injury, but he led a 34-22 win over Detroit at Soldier Field in 2018, going 23/30 for 355 with 3 TD and another score on the ground.

Trubisky’s past success vs. the Lions could lead to a higher scoring game in this one. Don’t overlook Chicago coach Matt Nagy trying to pull some tricks out of his bag on Thanksgiving Day either. For the most part though, the Bears haven’t been able to score the football this season. 5 straight Chicago games have gone ‘under’ the total as the Bears haven’t broken the 20 point barrier in any of those tilts. Chicago is 28th in the league in points scored per game.

It’s not just the offense causing Bears games to fall under the total, the Chicago defense has held their own (for the most part) as well. Khalil Mack and Co. will be facing a Detroit QB making his first career start and on a short week to boot. The Bears offense has had success against the Lions, which is huge for their defense to actually get off the field in a game. Chicago has held 4 of the last 5 opponents to 17 points or less.

Who Is David Blough?

NFL week 13 Bears at Lions free pick
Scarbrough getting a running game going would ease a huge burden on Blough.

As if the turnaround on the short week wasn’t bad enough for Matt Patricia and the Lions, they are down to their 3rd string QB David Blough to face the Chicago defense. Jeff Driskel got the start vs. Chicago 3 weeks ago, but he has an ailing hamstring. Detroit will now turn to the undrafted rookie Blough out of Purdue. Blough has gotten first team reps – but in just two walkthroughs on the short week. His next pass will be his first in the NFL.

Chicago’s defense is just 19th in the league in sacks but they do rank in the top 10 in both pass and run yards allowed. The Lions got some decent production out of their running game last week with Bo Scarbrough carrying the ball 18 times for 98 yards but the Lions still lost 16-19 to lowly Detroit. The Lions also put up 27 points vs. Dallas the week before – but their defense allowed 35 and that was with Driskel in the lineup, not an undrafted rookie.

The Lions allowed 444 yards passing and 3 TD to Dak Prescott in week 11. That followed the hat trick of TD passes from Trubisky as Detroit now has the #30 passing defense in the league.

NFL Week 13 Bears at Lions Free Pick

Detroit has produced a solid running game as of late, which at least helps Blough and the total get a little bit closer to the over. Chicago’s offense is going to get theirs today as they try to pull to .500 on the season. The big question is what Detroit produces to help that number. The Bears offense can put up 4 TDs today, especially against a tired Lions defense. Can the Lions get to 10?

Free Pick: Chicago / Detroit *Over* 37

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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