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NFL Week 12 Afternoon Free Pick: Steelers at Broncos

Pittsburgh on Upset Alert When They Visit Denver?

Home ‘dogs are always appealing in the NFL, especially when you consider a heated matchup like we see with Pittsburgh traveling to Denver this afternoon. The Steelers are indeed road favorites (PIT -3) as they put their 6 game winning streak on the line in the NFL week 12 free pick. Mile High Stadium will be rocking today, but the Steelers are 4-0 on the road this season. Ben Roethlisberger is just 2-4 in his career in Denver however. Do the Broncos keep that trend going today?

Are the Steelers Playing With Just Too Much Momentum Right Now?

NFL week 12 free pick
Antonio Brown is a TD machine this season. How does Denver keep pace?

It doesn’t matter if Pittsburgh is playing on the road or at home lately, they’ve simply been dominant. Not only have the Steelers rattled off 6 straight wins, they’ve also gone 5-0-1 ATS over that time. Pittsburgh has played like Super Bowl contenders not only because of their potent offense, but because they have a solid defense to go with it. Mike Tomlin’s team is a top 10 defense in points allowed, yards allowed, and vs. the rush and pass. They’ve held six straight opponents to 21 points or less as well. The Broncos have scored 23 or less in 8 of their last 9 so the O/U of 47.5 has a great chance of falling on the low side in the NFL week 12 free pick.

Of course you can’t preview a Steelers game without addressing their high powered offense as well. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL in points scored and have a top 5 total yardage and passing attack. Ben Roethlisberger has struggled in Denver in his career and he’s coming off a 3 INT game last week vs. Jacksonville. Big Ben has thrown for 250+ yards in every game this season however and the Broncos offense can be exploited as they rank 18th in the league vs. the pass. Denver upset the Chargers 23-22 a week ago, but they also allowed 401 yards passing to Phillip Rivers. Antonio Brown has 11TD in 11 games this season while Juju Smith-Schuster has 75+ yards receiving in 4 of the last 5. There might just be too many weapons for Denver to contain today.

How Does Denver Keep Pace with Pittsburgh Today?

NFL week 12 free pick
Keenum is going to be expected to go blow-for-blow with Roethlisberger this afternoon.

What are oddsmakers expecting from the Denver offense today? The Broncos were solid last week vs. the Chargers but definitely not spectacular as Case Keenum threw for just 205 yards. Keenum has been better at home this year, throwing for 245+ in three straight at Mile High including 322 vs. the Rams and 290 vs. Houston. The Broncos ran the ball just 19 times last week however and 20 times for 75 yards the week prior vs. the Texans so this could be a team without an offensive identity right now. It’s hard to expect rookie RB’s Royce Freeman or Phillip Lindsay to get going vs. a Pittsburgh defense allowing under 100 ypg so that’s even more pressure on Denver’s 15th ranked passing game today.

Speaking of pressure, the Broncos defense is definitely going to feel it in the NFL week 12 free pick. The Broncos have allowed 3 of the last 4 opponents to 23 points or less but the Steelers have a 52 point and a 33 point outing in the last month. The Steelers’ James Conner has just 22 carries total in the last two games but that just means he should be fresh vs. the Broncos 27th ranked rush defense.

NFL Week 12 Free Pick Betting

The Steelers come into today with a league high 37 sacks. You know that Pittsburgh is going to get theirs on offense but how can the Denver offense keep up with the scoring. If the Broncos win, it will need to be in a low scoring game but Pittsburgh has way too many options and way too much momentum to allow that to happen.

NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3


Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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