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NFL Week 11 Bears at Falcons Betting Preview

Atlanta A Slight Home Favorite on Sunday

It’s a homecoming game for Justin Fields in the Bears at Falcons betting matchup. The Chicago QB grew up in a suburb of Atlanta, attending Kennesaw High School and going on to the University of Georgia before transferring to Ohio State. Fields grew up a Falcons fan and will be playing his childhood team for the first time in the NFL on Sunday.

While the Bears (3-7) excited about their future with Fields’ improving play, Atlanta (4-6) is still right in the thick of a playoff hunt thanks to playing in the NFC South that Tampa Bay leads with a 5-5 record. The Falcons have extra rest following a 25-15 loss in the Thursday night game in week 10, a big reason why they are -3 point favorites for this matchup.

Fields Playing a Lot Better

Chicago had one of the most atrocious offenses in the NFL through the first six weeks of the season, suffering some brutal losses like a 12-7 defeat to Washington, 20-12 to the Giants, and 27-10 against Green Bay. Something is clicking over the past month though, with the Bears scoring 29+ in four straight although they only have a 1-3 record to show for that production.

The biggest revelation for Chicago recently is the call for more designed runs for Fields, and he’s responded with 88, 82, 60, 178, and 147 yards on the ground the last five games. The Bears still rank dead last in the NFL in passing (128.1) but they are seeing some nice development from TE Cole Kmet who has 5 TD catches the last three games.

Chicago should be able to get theirs on offense in the Bears at Falcons betting matchup, but the big question is on the defensive side of the ball. Over the last three games Chicago has lost 49-29 to Dallas, 35-32 to Miami, and then 31-30 against Detroit last Sunday.

Get Right Game for Falcons Offense

Atlanta has had a couple extra days since the Thursday loss to Carolina, which should help them try to develop a game plan to stop Fields’ rushing attack. The Bears have the #1 running offense in the NFL (201.7 ypg) but where Atlanta has had their main struggles is defending the pass (280.1 ypg, 32nd) which Chicago doesn’t do especially well.

Carolina only had 101 yards passing vs Atlanta last Thursday but they ran for 232 to get the 10-point win. That gives Chicago some value here to replicate the the Panthers’ game plan, but either way Atlanta has to be better on offense as they’ve been held to 17 points or less in four of the last six.

The Falcons can have some success vs. Chicago on Sunday in multiple facets of their offense. The Bears allowed 21 points to Detroit in the 4th quarter last week, allowed a 300+ yard passing game to Tua Tagovailoa in week 9, and gave up 200 rush yards to Dallas the week before.

Free Week 11 Bears at Falcons Betting Pick

Fields should be able to have some success on the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but will it be enough to overcome what has been a pretty porous defense? Both teams can run the football and although that might not lead to a lot of scoring early in the game, the defenses are going to wear down in the second half and push this one over the total.

Free Pick: Over 48.5

 

 

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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