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NCAAF Week 6 Kansas State at Iowa State Betting Preview

#20 K-State a Slight Road Favorite In This Matchup

It took new Kansas State QB Adrian Martinez some time to adjust from his transfer from Nebraska, but he’s showing why he was worth the wait – and a Heisman candidate at times last year- for the Wildcats. Martinez has KSU to 4-1 on the season as they head into Ames as -1.5 road favorites for Kansas State at Iowa State betting.

Iowa State (3-2) is coming off a disappointing 14-11 loss at unbeaten Kansas last week as -3.5 favorites. ISU’s big goal with their #7 rush defense in the country (83.0 ypg) is to stop the dual threat Martinez who has 148 and 171 yards rushing the last two weeks with 7 TDs on the ground. ISU has won back-to-back games in the head to head series by a combined 78-20.

K-State Running Game for Real

It took Martinez a bit of time to find his groove this season, a) because he’d transferred from Nebraska but also b) because Kansas State was involved in some pretty bad weather games early on. That includes a 40-12 win over Missouri in a rain and lightning delayed game as well as a 17-10 loss to Tulane on a very windy afternoon.

Aside from Mother Nature, there’s been nobody able to stop Martinez as of late. He had a breakout 234 yards passing and 148 yards rushing with 5 total TDs in the 41-34 upset of Oklahoma as +13.5 underdogs and followed that up with 289 all purpose yards with 4 TDs to beat Texas Tech 37-28. Quite simply, if the Cyclones cannot stop the run in Kansas State at Iowa State betting then it’s looking like the Wildcats get to 5-1 on the year.

What makes Kansas State’s ground game so lethal is that it’s not just Martinez, as Deuce Vaughn is a workhorse back that is 4th in the nation with 638 yards on the ground. Vaughn has gone for 100+ in 4 of 5 games this season, and K-State’s 267.6 ypg are 3rd most in the nation.

Iowa State Ready to Flip the Script

The Cyclones have lost back-to-back games after their 3-0 start, falling 31-24 at home to Baylor and 14-11 in a trip to Kansas last week. Oddsmakers had the Cyclones as -2.5 and -3.5 favorites in both of those defeats, so it looks like they’re losing faith making ISU the home ‘dog on Saturday. Of course that’s usually when a team gets the win when they weren’t supposed to.

Iowa State obviously misses NFL draft pick Breece Hall, who had 1572 and 1472 yards rushing the last two seasons. The Cyclones’ 112 ypg rushing ranks 112th, but on the bright side QB Hunter Dekkers has done a decent job of filling in for 4-year starter Brock Purdy. Dekkers has thrown for 280+ in each of the last two games, but also has 3 INTs over that span and 6 on the season.

Free Kansas State at Iowa State Betting Pick

Iowa State has put up solid defensive numbers this season, ranking in the top 15 in total yards (255.4), passing yards (172.4), rush yards (83) and points (14.4). KSU has only covered the number in one of their last five trips to Ames, and are 2-6 ATS against the Cyclones in the last 8. This feels like a game where Iowa State has dropped two in a row as favorites, and then gets the win at home as an underdog.

Free Pick: Iowa State +1.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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