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NCAAF Week 15 North Carolina at Miami Pick and Betting Preview

Heading For a Shootout at Hard Rock Stadium?

Points should be aplenty in the North Carolina at Miami pick as oddsmakers have set the betting total at a whopping 71. The Hurricanes are a -3 point favorite at home in this tilt, their final game of the regular season with so far the only blemish coming against #4 Clemson.

The Tar Heels aren’t going down without a fight however, boasting the #1 offense in the ACC and the #5 unit in total yards in the entire country. North Carolina has scored 40+ points in five of the last six games, and are a trendy upset pick against a Miami team that squeaked out three straight wins prior to last week’s 48-0 domination of Duke as -14.5 favorites.

Another Big Day for Tar Heels Offense

The Hurricanes have the #4 ranked defense in the ACC, but that unit is going to be put to the test in the North Carolina at Miami pick. The Tar Heels simply move the ball at will, averaging 41.1 ppg on the season.

The UNC passing game gets a lot of hype – and for good reason as Sam Howell has followed up a 35 TD / 7 INT freshman campaign with 26 TD / 6 INT in 2020. North Carolina has a great ground attack too though, as both Michael Carter and Javonte Williams have eclipsed 900+ rushing yards on the season and have a combined 23 TDs. Miami’s defense has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 20 points or less, but did allow 41 points in a win over NC State in week 10.

North Carolina comes into Saturday’s tilt essentially off a bye week after beating Western Carolina 49-9 last week but as -50 point favorites. The Tar Heels fell at home 17-31 to Notre Dame the week before that (+4.5) and have had some slip-ups this year like their 44-41 loss to Virginia as a TD favorite and dropping a 31-28 contest at Florida State as -13.5 favorites. UNC outlasted Wake Forest 59-53 in week 11 and beat Virginia Tech 56-45 in week 6.

Big Day Ahead for Miami Offense?

UNC has the #6 defense in the ACC – somehow. The Tar Heels have allowed points in chunks many times this season which means the Hurricanes and D’Eriq King should be in line for big production on Saturday afternoon (3:30 PM ET, ABC). King ranks 3rd in the ACC in total yards (311.2) and like Howell, doesn’t turn the ball over with 20 TD to 4 INT on the year.

Despite their 8-1 record, Miami missed out on the ACC Championship game that will be a rematch between Notre Dame and Clemson. The Hurricanes only loss of the year came against those Tigers, 42-17 at Clemson in week 6 as +14 point underdogs.

With next week’s game against Georgia Tech canceled, Saturday marks the final regular season game for Miami. The team is 4-0 at Hard Rock Stadium on the season, but hasn’t played at home since an October 24th win over Virginia. Despite their overall success on the year, the ‘Canes have had to eek some games out lately including by 5 points against Virginia, 3 points vs. NC State and 1 point vs. Virginia Tech prior to last week’s 48-0 thumping of Duke.

Free North Carolina at Miami Pick

The Tar Heels won this meeting 28-25 last season as +5 point home underdogs. UNC’s defense is a liability in the 2020 rematch, but North Carolina’s offense is also on another level. 57% of public bettors like Miami at home, but taking the points looks much better in this matchup.
North Carolina 34 – Miami 28

Free Pick: North Carolina +3

 

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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