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NBA Free Pick February 28th, 2018

Milwaukee Heads Into a Back-to-Back Against a Struggling Pistons Team

The Bucks are where the Pistons want to be, sitting comfortably on there way to an Eastern Conference postseason berth. The Bucks are in the 6th seed which is far from a postseason lock but Detroit is sitting on the outside looking in as the 9th seed. The Pistons can make up some of the 3.5 games they trail Miami by with a win over Milwaukee in the 2/28 NBA free pick. That victory is made even more possible by the fact the Bucks fly in after a hard fought 104-107 home loss to Washington last night.

Is the Road the Answer for Milwaukee?

2/28 NBA free pick
Eric Bledsoe had 22 in the last meeting with Detroit but how fresh is he tonight?

The Bucks are a decent 14-15 on the road this year but it’s where they’ve found most of their success recently. Milwaukee has won four of their last five road games compared to dropping three straight at home. Wednesday night’s 2/28 NBA free pick is the third in four nights for the Bucks but they’re actually 15-5-1 ATS their last 21 on 0 days rest. That being said Milwaukee is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four against the Pistons.

The Bucks seem to be falling apart defensively as they’ve lost three of four while allowing an average of 120.8 points per game over that span. The Bucks do have the advantage of going 2-1 against Detroit this season and as expected Giannis Antetokounmpo is a major reason why. The MVP candidate has 25,21, and 29 points in the three meetings. The Bucks have shot over 47% from the field in each game and have also held Detroit to under 42% in two of the contests. How much does playing their third game in four nights contribute to fatigue tonight though? 

Are the Bucks Just a Bad Matchup for the Pistons?

2/28 NBA free pick
Must-win games like tonight are the exact reason Detroit traded for Griffin.

All three games between the two teams have been low scoring this season. The series kicked off with a 105-96 Pistons win in Detroit on November 3rd followed by a 99-95 Bucks win in Milwaukee two weeks later. The last contest was a 104-100 Bucks home win on December 6th. Detroit has actually gone 2-0-1 ATS in the series with the ‘under’ also going 2-0-1. Both teams have a new look heading into the 2/28 NBA free pick though as the Pistons have added Blake Griffin while Milwaukee welcomes back Jabari Parker.

The Pistons started off like gangbusters after acquiring Griffin, winning five consecutive games. Since then they have dropped six of seven however including three in a row in which they’ve failed to break 100 points on offense. Griffin has had OK results in his last four games but it’s Andre Drummond that Detroit will likely rely on tonight. The Pistons C matches up well with the Bucks as in the three games he’s posted 24/14, 13/17, and 27/20 as far as points and rebounds. At the very least that’s a very solid counter to Antetokounmpo for the Pistons.

2/28 NBA Free Pick Betting

The line opened at DET -2.5 but has since dropped to DET -1.5. The public is calling this contest a toss-up with 51% being on the Bucks and it really is that close. Antetokounmpo did play 39 minutes last night in the Bucks loss to Washington and Parker is likely going to sit out tonight after logging 26:41 on the court versus the Wizards. The Bucks are under .500 on the road while Detroit is a modest 19-13 at home. Milwaukee doesn’t want to lose two in a row – but they can afford it. The Pistons find a way to keep their season afloat tonight.

Free Pick: Detroit Pistons -1.5

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor.

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