The American League Division Series shifts to Yankee Stadium for Game 3 on Tuesday night. First pitch is set for 8:08 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays lead the series 2-0 after back-to-back wins in Toronto, scoring a combined 23 runs in those games. The Yankees now face elimination and need a strong performance to keep their season alive.
Toronto’s bats have been red-hot, hitting eight home runs and posting a .392 team average through two games. New York’s pitching staff has struggled badly, posting a 12.94 ERA in the series. The Yankees are 96-71 overall and 52-32 at home, while the Blue Jays finished 96-68 and went 40-41 on the road. The moneyline shows New York -150, Toronto +125, and the total at 7.5 runs.
Yankees Preview – Rodon Must Deliver to Extend the Season
The Yankees will turn to Carlos Rodon in a must-win game. The left-hander was solid in his Wild Card outing, going six-plus innings and giving up three runs on four hits against Boston. Rodon owns a 4.72 ERA across nine career starts against the Blue Jays and went 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts versus them this season.
Rodon has been dominant at times but has struggled with home runs and command when he falls behind in counts. His biggest challenge will be facing the top of Toronto’s lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has crushed him historically, going 10-for-17 with two home runs in their matchups. If Rodon can’t locate his fastball early, he may not last long against a deep lineup that punishes mistakes.
New York’s bullpen has been inconsistent but still has top-tier arms. David Bednar and Camilo Doval are strong in the late innings, and Tim Hill gives manager Aaron Boone a reliable left-handed option. However, the pen has been overworked after two short starts from Luis Gil and Max Fried in Games 1 and 2. Boone needs Rodon to pitch into the sixth inning to have any chance of containing Toronto’s offense.
Offensively, New York has to get more from its middle of the order. Aaron Judge is 4-for-7 in the series, but he struck out with the bases loaded in Game 1. Cody Bellinger is 2-for-8 with the team’s only home run, and Juan Soto has yet to record an extra-base hit. The Yankees are hitting .232 as a team in the series and need timely hits to avoid a sweep.
Blue Jays Preview – Toronto Looks to Finish the Sweep
Toronto has been the better team in every area so far. The Blue Jays scored 10 runs in Game 1 and 13 in Game 2, marking the first time in team history they’ve scored double-digit runs in consecutive postseason games. They also became the first team to score 10 or more runs twice in a single division series against the Yankees.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has led the charge, going 6-for-9 with two home runs and six RBIs. Daulton Varsho has been just as dangerous, going 6-for-8 with two homers of his own. Alejandro Kirk added two home runs in Game 1, and George Springer has chipped in key hits at the top of the order. Toronto’s lineup is showing excellent balance, with power from the middle and production from the bottom half.
Shane Bieber takes the mound for Toronto in Game 3. Since joining the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, he’s gone 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA across seven starts. Bieber has pitched well in big games before, holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings. Against the Yankees in his career, he’s 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in five starts.
Toronto’s bullpen has been effective and well-rested heading into this matchup. Louis Varland, Seranthony Domínguez, and Jeff Hoffman provide reliable depth, while Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty cover left-handed matchups. The Blue Jays’ bullpen ERA is 3.34 for the season with a 1.17 WHIP. That stability has allowed manager John Schneider to manage aggressively with early hooks for starters if needed.
Toronto’s overall team approach has been strong. They’ve limited strikeouts, driven the ball to all fields, and hit with power when needed. Their 5.01 runs scored per game this year ranks among the best in the league. If the offense continues to produce like it has, this series could end quickly.
Betting Prediction
Oddsmakers list New York as the favorite due to home-field advantage and Rodon’s track record, but Toronto’s form gives them value as an underdog. The Blue Jays’ lineup has crushed left-handed pitching all season, ranking in the top five in OPS against southpaws. Meanwhile, Rodon’s home run issues and Guerrero’s history against him make Toronto’s offense tough to fade.
Shane Bieber is steady enough to give Toronto five or six innings before turning it over to a deep bullpen. The Yankees’ bullpen is showing signs of fatigue, and their offense has not matched the consistency of Toronto’s. Expect another high-scoring game early before the Blue Jays pull away in the middle innings. Final score prediction: Blue Jays 7, Yankees 4. Toronto completes the sweep and advances to the ALCS.
Pick: Blue Jays +125 and Over 7.5
