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Saturday August 24th MLB Betting Free Pick: Philles at Marlins Total

An Interesting O/U of 9 Set Out for the Contest in Miami

The O/U for the August 24th MLB betting free pick is 9 in Saturday’s contest between the Phillies and Marlins. That number hit 3X over as pitching was nonexistent in Friday’s series opener that Miami took by an astounding score of 19-11. Experienced baseball bettors have seen offensive eruptions followed by a 2-1 game the next night. That being said, both bullpens are wiped out so there’s a lot of pressure on the starting pitchers in this one.

Philadelphia Needs a Deep Outing From Eflin Saturday

August 24th MLB betting free pick
Is Eflin pitching late in Saturday’s game too much to ask?

It looked like an Eagles / Dolphins score on Friday night as the Marlins won the series opener 19-11. Philadelphia starter Vince Velasquez was rocked for 7ER in just 2.1 IP so Gabe Kapler had to go to his bullpen real early. That means the starter for the August 24th MLB betting free pick, Zach Eflin, needs to give the Phillies at least 5 innings on Saturday. Unfortunately that could be a tall order as Eflin lasted just 3.2 IP in his return to the rotation last time out. Eflin threw just 73 pitches after making the last 4 appearances out of the bullpen. Eflin has also allowed 9ER across 10.0 IP in two starts in Miami this season.

Lost in Philadelphia’s crushing defeat on Friday night was that they held a 7-0 lead heading into the bottom of the 3rd inning. Therefore that loss was on Philly pitching and not their bats. The Phillies also drew 10 walks in that game so they did show some patience at the plate. Things get a bit tougher on Saturday night with Jordan Yamamoto on the hill. Phillies batters have gone just 4-20 (.200) in two outings vs. the Marlins starter in 2019.

“Under” the Play with Yamamoto on the Bump?

August 24th MLB betting free pick
Castro had the home run stroke going on Friday night.

Yamamoto looked invincible to start his rookie year earlier in the season, throwing back-to-back 7.0 IP shutouts in his first two starts. He then allowed 6 total ER over his next 4 starts before coming back to Earth. From July 21st to August 13th, the right-hander gave up 23 runs in 25 IP across 5 starts (8.28 ERA). Yamamoto did look good his last time out – and in a very tough place to pitch at Coors Field allowing 2ER in 5.2 IP while striking out 9 Rockies batters. The Marlins used 6 bullpen pitcher’s in Friday’s come-from-behind win so the runs could come late in this one.

One thing the Marlins should have coming into the August 24th MLB betting free pick is some confidence on offense. They’ve hit Eflin well at home and they fought back from an 0-7 deficit to score 19 runs on Friday. Miami had a 7, a 5, and a 4 run scored inning in that game showing they can string together multiple good ABs in a row – two Starlin Castro HRs didn’t hurt either. What you worry about the Marlin on Saturday though is the fact that they’ve been held to 1 run or less in 5 of the last 10 but also have a 13 run explosion vs. the Dodgers over that span. It really is an ‘all or nothing’ offense.

Top Trends:

  • Under is 5-1 in Phllies last 6 Saturday games
  • Over is 5-2 in Eflin’s last 7 starts
  • Over is 7-0-1 in Marlins last 8 home games vs. RH starter
  • Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 overall
  • Over is 4-1 last 5 H2H meetings

MLB Free Pick

The Marlins coming out and laying an egg after a huge night on Friday is definitely a concern, especially since they are +110 underdogs even though they seemingly have the pitching advantage. Eflin has an 8.10 ERA in two starts at Marlins Park this season though so the Marlins should be able to scratch out a few. Yamamoto has the capability to shut down the Phillies offense, but he’s also allowed 4ER or more in 5 of his last 6 starts. Yamamoto has also completed the 6th inning just twice in his last 7 starts, meaning the Phillies could get some late runs vs. a stretched Marlins bullpen.

Pick: Phillies / Marlins *Over* 9

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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