Tampa Bay has had a very infamous free fall from their perch atop the AL East, allowing Baltimore to take the division lead over the past month. That being said, TB has still won 8 of their last 10 heading into the August 29th Rays at Marlins betting matchup but Miami still finds themselves a -142 favorite heading into Tuesday’s series opener.
The Rays are underdogs on Tuesday mostly because Sandy Alcantara takes the bump for the Marlins. The 2022 Cy Young winner has fallen off a bit this year though, a big reason why over 70% of the betting public likes Tampa Bay in this spot.
Why the Rays Have Value on Tuesday
Tampa Bay went just 8-16 in July, but they’ve bounced back for a 15-8 August to push their record to 80-52 on the 2023 season. The Rays just wrapped up a 5-1 home stand with a sweep over the Rockies while also taking two of three from the Yankees so they have momentum coming into the interstate two-game set in Miami.
The Rays also went 4-2 in their last road trip (on the West coast at the Angels and Giants), and the 4-hour visit south to Miami shouldn’t be a negative especially while having an off day on Monday. TB is up against Alcantara in the August 29th Rays at Marlins betting matchup, but he’s allowed 3+ ER in three of his last four starts.
The Rays being +120 on Monday is almost an automatic trigger pull for a team 28 games above .500 on the season. That price may be a slight on Tuesday’s starter Aaron Civale (6-3, 2.59 ERA) but Tampa Bay has won three of his four starts since being acquired from Cleveland. The right-hander has allowed just 5 ER over his last 16.0 IP and Miami has also lost six of their last eight overall.
Why the Marlins Have Value on Tuesday
The line alone is saying to take Miami on Tuesday night, with the Rays winners of 8 of their last 10 yet still being +120 underdogs. The public is jumping all over Tampa Bay to the tune of over 70% of public bets, yet the price has barely moved from a +115 open. This game has trap written all over it.
So how does Miami pull off the win at -142? It starts with the red hot Jorge Soler who has gone yard in two straight games and has hit 5 HRs in his last 9. The Marlins also have the MLB batting leader Luis Arraez (.350) who is cold this month (.227) but still has the potential to clog up the base paths any given night.
There’s no doubt that Alcantara is off his 2022 Cy Young form this season, but he also threw a complete game with 1 ER allowed and 10 K’s in his last home start on August 12th against the Yankees. The right-hander’s ERA is a full run less at home this season (3.61/4.61).
Free August 29th Rays at Marlins Betting Pick
Nobody will blame you for taking the Rays at +120 on Tuesday night but the line is saying take the Marlins. Alcantara was great in his last home start, and you just have to fade a team when 70% of the public is taking Tampa Bay.
Free Pick: Miami -142