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AFC Wild Card – Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots

Pats Are Vulnerable Tonight

Our Tennessee vs New England pick has the Pats at -4.5. This Tennessee vs New England prediction is one of four picks being offered on the two AFC Wild Card games being played Saturday, January 4. The other game, which has the Buffalo Bills playing the Houston Texans, is covered in two articles. See the spread pick for the Bills and Texans here and the over/under prediction right here. Also, see the over/under prediction for Buffalo and New England. The game between Tennessee and New England will kick off at 8:15 pm ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA.

Tennessee vs New England Pick – Regular Season

In 2019, the Tennessee Titans (9-7 Overall, 5-3 Away) finished second in the AFC South, while the New England Patriots (12-4 Overall, 6-2 Home) topped the AFC East. This season, Tennessee got off to a shaky start, as they went 2-4 for their first six games. After that, things improved as the Titans won seven of their last 10 games of the season. The New England Patriots won their first eight games of the season. Over their final eight, New England went 4-4, losing to Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, and Miami.

Titans and Patriots – Team Stats

Our Tennessee vs New England pick notes that on the road the Titans have averaged 25.3 PPG. At home, the Patriot defense is allowing 15.0 PPG. Tennessee has a solid rush attack that’s averaging 134.0 YPG, but at Gillette Stadium, the Pats are holding teams to 77.3 YPG on the ground. At home, New England has been good for 25.3 PPG, while the Titans are holding teams to 17.6 PPG. Tennessee is allowing opponents 244.1 passing YPG and 99.4 rushing YPG. At the same time, the Patriot offense is generating 260.5 air YPG and 104.13 ground YPG.

AFC Wild Card – Players and Matchups

QB Ryan Tannehill has had a good season. Originally the backup, he replaced Marcus Mariota after Mariota was injured. Despite regaining his health, Mariota was never put back into the starter position. Note, Tannehill has tossed 22 TD passes and six picks. He’s completed 70.3% of his passes and has been sacked 31 times. As a result of his play, Tannehill now leads the team. On 303 carries, RB Derrick Henry has rushed for 1,540 yards and 16 TDs. Tannehill has a solid group of receivers to pass to including A.J. Brown. Brown has eight TD catches, 53 receptions, and 1,051 receiving yards. The Tennessee defense is sound with 43 sacks, 14 picks, and 72 PD. They have also forced 11 fumbles, recovering nine. The D has scored three TDs.

New England QB Tom Brady has not has his best season. He completed 60.8% of his passes for 4,057 yards. Brady has thrown 24 TD passes and eight interceptions. He’s been sacked 27 times. Julian Edelman is the top receiver. He got 100 catches for 1,117 yards, six TDs. RB James White has caught 72 passes for 645 yards and five scores. RB Sony Michel has 912 rushing yards and seven TDs. The Patriot D has grabbed 25 INTs, forced 15 fumbles and recovered 11 while scoring five times. In our Tennessee vs New England pick, they also 47 sacks and 89 PD.

Titans and Patriots Assessment

Our Tennessee vs New England pick notes the following:

  1. Brady has been vulnerable
  2. Tannehill is riding a wave
  3. Patriots D can score
  4. Titans have a fine D too
  5. Pats have struggled as of late

Our Tennessee vs New England Pick

Our Tennessee vs New England pick finds that if the Pats do win, it will most likely be by three points. As noted, life has not been easy for Brady and the Patriots. They’ve had a tough time winning and teams have been able to keep it close against them. That means we’re taking the Tennessee Titans at +4.5.

Summary – Tennessee vs New England Spread Pick </h3

Tennessee Titans at +4.5


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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