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Friday November 9th NBA Free Pick

Why No Love For Sacramento at Home Vs. Minnesota on Friday?

The Sacramento Kings are off to a 6-5 start to the 2018 season – and they’ll take that considering how the team has fared since the Chris Webber and Mike Bibby days. The November 9th NBA free pick is going to be a good test to see if the Kings are for real. The Minnesota comes into the Golden 1 Center as -2.5 favorites despite the fact that the Timberwolves have gone 0-7 on the road so far this year. Is the line indicitive that Sacramento is a fluke – or Minnesota is a lot better than they’ve been playing so far?

What’s Wrong With the Timberwolves?

November 9th NBA free pick
Will Butler lose momentum after playing the last two games under the bright lights of Los Angeles?

Before the 2018 NBA season started the Minnesota Timberwolves were a lot of people’s pick to be one of the top 3-4 teams in the Western Conference. Yes the year is still young, but the Wolves 4-8 start to the campaign is highly disappointing. An 0-7 road record is definitely worrying as is the fact that Minnesota’s defense – coach Tom Thibodeau’s supposed strong point – ranks 25th in points allowed/game, 26th in opponents field goal percentage, and 25th in 3 point percentage against. That could be a huge problem in the November 9th NBA free pick as the Kings have been offensively efficient ranking 5th in points / game, and second in both field goal and 3-point percentage.

Tonight’s contest almost seems like a trap game considering that the Timberwolves have not only failed to win a road game this season, but come into this evening on their 5th straight tilt away from the Target Center. Although both teams have solid bigs, it should be the back court that decides tonight’s game. Derrick Rose is averaging 26 ppg the last two contests and Jimmy Butler has scored 20+ in four straight games. Karl-Anthony Towns has been held to just 13 points in 2 of the last 4 games.

Kings Are In a Prime Opportunity Tonight

November 9th NBA free pick
Towns had 26 points and 17 boards when the two teams last met up in February.

It’s true that Sacramento has lost two in a row, but those contests have come against Toronto and Milwaukee, two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Prior to that the Kings had put together a 5-game win streak and right now sit in a tie for 2nd place in the Pacific behind Golden State. The Kings aren’t getting much love from oddsmakers in the November 9th NBA free pick but that’s nothing new. They’ve been listed as underdogs in 9 of their last 10 and have averaged 117.5 ppg on the year. The Timberwolves defense can definitely be exploited – but so can the Kings’ as they rank 28th in points allowed / game. Tonight’s O/U of an insane 233.5 reflects both teams ability to score – yet not prevent opponents from getting buckets either.

Much like the Wolves, the Kings have relied on their backcourt to race out to a record above .500 on the year. Buddy Hield has gone for 24+ in 3 of the last 4 and De’Aaron Fox started off November with a 31 point, 10 rebound, 15 assist night vs. Atlanta three games ago. Sacramento could have a huge edge in the paint tonight too even though Minnesota has Towns. Willie Cauley-Stein went for 24 vs. Toronto last game while rookie Marvin Bagley is a 6’11” banger that comes off the bench for the Kings.

November 9th NBA Free Pick Betting

The initial lean in tonight’s contest goes towards Sacramento. They are fresh, at home, and against a team that has lost all 7 of their road games this season. There’s no doubt Minnesota is a talented team and will win a road game…eventually. The public likes the Kings slightly (55%) but it may be time to start believing that Sacramento is for real. At least for tonight.

NBA Free Pick: Sacramento Kings +2.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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