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Friday July 26th MLB Betting Free Pick: Giants at Padres

San Francisco Ready to Roll After an Off Day?

The Giants have been one of the better teams in baseball since the all-star break and have solid value in the July 26th MLB betting free pick as +115 underdogs. That line looks a bit off as San Francisco visits the Padres, who are 3-7 over their last 10. The Giants meanwhile have won 8 of 10 including 5 in a row on the road and their last 5 vs. the Padres. Why is San Diego favored in this one (-135) again?

Giants the Easy Wager Here?

July 26th MLB betting free pick
Samardzija has pitched well at Petco Park in his career.

This contest sure seems to have the edge go to San Francisco which makes it a bit dumbfounding that the Padres are such significant favorites. SF fell 1-4 to the Cubs on Wednesday, but they’ve also won five straight after a loss. Not to mention the Giants were idle on Thursday and have won 4 of their last 5 the game after an off day. The Padres on the other hand played in New York Thursday and have to fly cross-country back home after an 0-4 loss to the Mets. San Francisco is 27-23 on the road this season and has a much more preferable 500 mile trek to Petco (and an off day) compared to 2700 miles to commute for the Padres.

The Giants have been playing better as of late and have the more ideal travel schedule in the July 26th MLB betting free pick. Is San Francisco an underdog Friday because of starter Jeff Samardzija then? The veteran has had some ups and downs lately, giving up 4ER to the Mets last start. Prior to that though, Samardzija held three straight opponents to 2ER or less and also pitches well at Petco, where he has a 2.42 career ERA. Samardzija pitched in San Diego on July 1st, allowing 2ER over 8.0 IP.

Padres Still Tired After Long Road Trip?

July 26th MLB betting free pick
San Diego has a potent offense, but are they to be feared in this tilt?

San Diego is back at Petco Park on Friday night after going 3-6 over the past week plus in series’ vs. the Marlins, Cubs, and Mets. The Padres have scored 5+ runs in 4 of the last 6 while Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr. are both hitting above .333 over that span but San Diego is still just 2-4 in that stretch. It makes you wonder what the Padres can do in the July 26th MLB betting free pick to get the W – or why they are -135 favorites in the first place. San Diego has lost 7 straight home games and 4 of the last 5 when San Francisco has visited Petco Park.

Are the Padres favored by so much Friday just because Joey Lucchessi is on the bump? The left-hander is a whole different pitcher at home where his ERA is 2.83, compared to a whopping 6.48 on the road. Lucchessi gave up 6ER last time out – but that was in Chicago. He has held Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Atlanta each to 2ER or less in the last three outings at Petco Park. Lucchessi is just 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA in three starts vs. the Giants on the year.

Top Trends:

  • Giants are 5-0 last 5 road games
  • Giants are 5-0 last 5 following a loss
  • Giants are 19-7 last 26 overall
  • Padres are 3-9 last 12 overall
  • Padres are 1-4 in Lucchessi’s last 5 starts 

July 26th MLB Betting Free Pick

Maybe this is a trap game but for the value it’s hard not to like San Francisco. The Giants had Thursday off, have won five straight over the Padres, and San Diego has to make a cross country jaunt back home after a long road trip. If the Giants are bait, then so be it but they are the much better squad in this one.

San Francisco Giants +115

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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