Our late night college football free pick features San Diego State playing Nevada. This appears to be a major mismatch. Last week, the San Diego State Aztecs (8-1), who are 5-0 in the West Division of the Mountain West Conference (MWC), beat up on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 55-0. Lately, this team has been wining by 20 points or more. The Nevada Wolf Pack (3-6) who are 1-4 in the MWC are one spot away from last in the West Division. The Wolf Pack has been, overall, keeping their losses to less than 20 points, but in this game they are facing both an explosive offense and a defense that can score points.
San Diego State has run off five straight wins after their 42-24 loss to the South Alabama Jaguars on October 2. Five of the Aztecs’ wins in 2016 have been by 19 or more points. Recent wins include beating Utah State by 27 points and San Jose State by 39. The last time Nevada won was against Fresno State 27-22. Fresno is 0-6 in conference play. Since then they have lost to San Jose State 14-10, Wyoming 42-34, and New Mexico 35-26.
San Diego State
San Diego State combines a solid passing game and a productive rush attack extremely effectively. The team is averaging 35.8 PPG and 415.0 YPG on offense. They are rushing for 273.9 YPG. In the meantime, Nevada is allowing opponents 447.3 YPG with 279.9 of those yard on the ground. They are giving up 28.3 PPG.
We expect Aztec QB Christian Chapman (61.4 COMP%, 12 TDs, 4 INTs) to keep the ball in the air enough to allow the running game to do what it does best. That’s gain yards and score. RB Donnel Pumphrey has gained over 1,500, averaging 6.5 YPA and scoring 13 TDs, while his compatriot Rashaad Penny is averaging 6.3 YPA and has scored seven TDs. Penny, who is averaging over 20 yards per pass catch, also has three receiving touchdowns.
The Wolf Pack comes into the game averaging 22.9 points, while they are facing a D that is allowing just 15.1 PPG. On average, the Aztecs are holding offenses to under 90 yards per game rushing and under 190 yards in the air. They have a stellar group of pass defenders.
For the Wolf Pack, QB Tyler Stewart (63.2 COMP%, 9 TDs, 3 INTs) will try to create some points by tossing the bass to WR Wyatt Demps (43 REC, 524 YDs, 12.2 AVG, 7 TDs). The other part of the Nevada offense, the running game, will depend upon James Butler (188 ATT, 989 YDs, 5.3 AVG, 8 TDs). However, we expect that the Wolf Pack will have a tough time against this SDS defense.
Free Pick Features San Diego State Playing Nevada
Our free pick features San Diego State playing Nevada at 10:30 tonight. We expect this to be a rout. Take the Aztecs at -21.5.