Perhaps we got a bit ahead of ourselves penciling Oregon into the College Football Playoff after their impressive 3-0 start to the season. The wheels fell off for the Quack Attack last week as they were upended 35-37 at Arizona State despite being -14.5 favorites. This makes the college football week 5 night game betting not an easy one to call.
With the 3-1 Cal Bears coming into Autzen to take on the equally 3-1 Ducks – you’d expect a close game. Not the oddsmakers however as they’ve listed Oregon as a mysterious -16 favorite. Nearly every pundit is calling for a close game, if not a Cal upset, so is this an easy trap taking Cal, or are the oddsmakers simply talking us into a classic overthinking situation in a big Oregon win?
California Getting +16 After a Tough Loss to USC
Both of these teams suffered their first losses of the season last week, each in their conference opener. The Bears were impressive heading into the 4th quarter tied at 13 with then 5th ranked USC but turned the ball over fur times in that final period which sealed a 30-20 Trojan win. The Bears’ start is no fluke as they’ve posted wins over Ole Miss and North Carolina with a win over Weber State sandwiched in between. Cal has won mostly by throwing the ball, with QB Ross Bowers leading a pass attack averaging 275.5 per. He did throw 4INT and lost 2 fumbles last week so their could be some confidence issues looming for college football week 5 night game betting.
ASU proved last week that the much improved Oregon defense still has some holes to fill. The Sun Devils had a well rounded attack with 347 in the air and 142 on the ground. That’s saying something considering Arizona State has the 111th ranked rush offense (108.3) although they have the #12 pass offense. Cal is 40th and 80th respectively.
Is It Panic Time in Eugene For College Football Week 5 Night Game Betting?
Football is all about traditions, and Oregon is staying true to theirs. https://t.co/Ib7PzCmiGs
— Oregon Ducks CNS (@duckscns) September 30, 2017
Although a win could’ve been had last week, the Duck coaching staff is not in full meltdown mode…yet. After all QB Justin Herbert still through for 281 with 3TD and 0INT and running back Royce Freeman had 81 yards and a TD despite the running game being abandoned in a 31-16 third quarter deficit. The Ducks compiled 400+ yards and still have the 11th best offense in the nation in total yards and the #1 in PPG at 50.8.
Of course the big question for college football week 5 night game betting tonight is can the Ducks defense stop the Cal offensive attack? The Oregon offense will score, especially against a Cal defense that is sixth worse in the nation in passing yards allowed (309.5). Royce Freeman should get back into the running to see Saquon Barkley’s Heisman award from the invitee row as he lugs the ball against a Bears defense giving up 136.3 per game.
College Football Week 5 Night Game Betting Pick
Oregon should get the win, especially considering Cal hasn’t won at Autzen since 2007 and hasn’t even won a Pac=12 road game since 2015…but not -775 on the Ducks moneyline confident however. The Bears have a new head coach in Justin Wilcox and he’s bringing a new mentality to the program as he comes over from being Wisconsin’s defensive coordinator. The past is working hard against him however considering:
-Cal is 1-5 ATS the last 6 vs Oregon
-Cal is 0-4 ATS the last 4 at Oregon
-The home team is 7-2 ATS the last 9 meetings between the two
-The favorite is 5-1 ATS the last six between the two
57% of the betting public is on Cal and to be honest it seems like the safest play. However, this just feels like a game where that’s what oddsmakers want you to think which is why the home team is the pick for the college football week 5 night game betting. The Cal defense can’t stop the Oregon passing attack, which will open up the running game, and the Duck defense wipes its chin from last week’s defeat.
Pick: Oregon -16