Los Angeles (1-0) looks like an early Super Bowl favorite coming into the week 2 Rams at Colts matchup. L.A toppled the Bears 34-14 on Sunday Night Football, looking like a solid team on both sides of the ball. The betting public loves the Rams to the tune of nearly 70% of wagers, yet the line has come down from LAR -4 to LAR -3.
The Indianapolis Colts played a West Coast team at home last week as well, but lost 28-16 to the Seahawks as +3 point underdogs at Lucas Oil Stadium. Russell Wilson had 4 TD passes for Seattle in that season opener, which has the Colts secondary worried and Matthew Stafford licking his chops coming into week 2.
Why Aren’t the Rams Favored By More?
The line of the Rams -3.5 can cause a lot of overthinking. Besides the West Coast team traveling East for an early game (and the fact L.A is making their first road trip of the season), there isn’t a lot to be down on for Sean McVay’s team in this one. The Bears have a horrible secondary, but Stafford still looked very comfortable in his first game in the Rams system going 20/26 for 321 yards and 3 TD.
Wilson was 18/23 vs. the Colts secondary last week, throwing 4 TDs. The Rams had just 23 carries for 74 yards last week vs. Chicago, but another thing to be optimistic of is that Seattle ran the ball 27 times for 140 yards vs. the Indianapolis defense last week. Indianapolis had the #2 rush defense in the league last year (90.5) so giving up that many yards in the opener is a concern.
For as good as the Colts defense was last season, there weren’t any better than the Rams who ranked #1 in total yards, passing yards, and points allowed. It was the season opener last week, but Los Angeles didn’t look that great against the Bears despite giving up just 14 points. Andy Dalton hit 27 of 38 passes for Chicago, and David Montgomery had 108 yards on just 16 carries for Chicago. Can the Colts gameplan off that?
Colts Have Some Issues
Indianapolis gets a 2nd straight home game and were 6-2 at Lucas Oil Stadium in 2020 but things don’t get any easier in the Week 2 Rams at Colts meeting. Russell Wilson torched the Colts secondary last week and now Stafford comes to town with a 76.9 completion percentage after one game.
What really hurts the Colts on Sunday is that they likely can’t afford to get into a shootout with the Rams. That’s what Seattle did last week – took chances – with Tyler Lockett catching a 69-yard TD and D.K. Metcalf hauling in a 30-yard pass. Carson Wentz was 25/38 last week but was very conservative.
Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines were the leading receivers out of the back field with 6 catches apiece last week showing Wentz prefers the check down. Wentz is going to hear voices with the likes of Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd bearing down on him and meanwhile three Rams receivers caught passes longer than 37 yards last week.
Free Week 2 Rams at Colts Pick
L.A -3.5 looks too easy which is a red flag but at the same time you can’t overthink these things. The Seahawks were traveling East for an early game last week and did just fine, and if you take the Colts you’re handcuffing yourself because of their conservative offense. If the Rams do lose (or fail to cover), at least they’ll do it by taking chances.
Rams 31 – Colts 17
Free Pick: Rams -3.5