Game time temps are expected to be near 60° when the New England Patriots head to South Beach to take on the Dolphins. The weather is just one factor why oddsmakers have set the number at 48.5 for the NFL week 14 Monday night total play. The Patriots are an offensive juggernaut yet again and Miami is coming off one of their best performances of the season on that side of the ball. Even so, that’s a lot of points – which way does the total fall?
Taking a Look at the ‘Over’ 48.5
New England has scored 33+ points in three of their past four games and the Pats offense should be firing on all cylinders in the Miami weather. The teams met up just two weeks ago in New England where the home team was able to pull off a 35-17 win. Tom Brady threw for four TDs in that game while Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead combined for 162 on the ground. Overall the Patriots feature the #1 offense in the NFL in total yards and passing yards and are 3rd in points scored at 29 per game. Even so, New England is just 6-6 in O/U thus far on the season.
In that Miami loss in New England two weeks ago, Matt Moore started for an injured Jay Cutler and threw for just 215 yards with 2 INT. The ‘over’ could get a boost for the NFL week 14 Monday night total play with Cutler back in the lineup. Last week against the #1 Denver defense Cutler threw for 235 yards and 2 TD while Kenyan Drake added 120 yards and 1 TD on the ground. The Broncos have struggled this year in the standings, but are still #2 on defense against the pass and #4 versus the run – New England is 29 and 24 respectively.
Tom Brady in road games vs. the Bills: 14-2 (.875)
Tom Brady in road games vs. the Jets: 12-4 (.750)
Tom Brady in road games vs. the Dolphins: 7-8 (.467)
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) December 11, 2017
‘Under’ a Better Play with this Dolphins Offense?
While Miami was solid offensively last week, their big picture still paints some offensive struggles. The Dolphins are 29th in total yards including 29th in rushing offense. Miami is 27th in points scored and has scored 21 or less in four of the past six games. The first matchup between these two teams went over ’49’ in the 35-17 New England win, but it needed a defensive TD in the form of a 14 yard Reshad Jones fumble recovery to do so.
The Patriots offense is great no doubt, but they’ll also be without Rob Gronkowski tonight as he serves a suspension for a cheap shot against the Buffalo Bills last week. Gronkowski had 5 catches for 82 yards and 2TD in the first game against Miami. Another advantage for the ‘under’ in the NFL week 14 Monday night total play is the New England defense. That may sound like some day drinking analytics as the Pats are 30th in total yards and 29th versus the pass but New England has actually allowed 17 points or fewer in eight straight games. New England is 4th in the NFL allowing only 18.6 points per game.
Dolphins are coming off a hungry win, they’ll be hungrier tonight.
Patriots already exposed their own defense “double Landry”. Parker will come alive, Stills will eat and Drake will have field day vs LB in the passing game.#PhinsAreIn
— #PhinsAreIn (@ThePhinsAreIn) December 11, 2017
NFL Week 14 Monday Night Total Play – Betting
Miami has been an ‘over’ machine lately, soaring above the number in seven straight contests. Of course that’s not all the Dolphins scoring as they’ve allowed 30+ points in four of the last six games. That’s not a stat that bodes well with the Patriots top ranked offense coming to town. The number that Miami needs to hit is ’20’ and Jay Cutler and the offense should have a good chance at doing that based on their performance last week against Denver. As long as Brady is Brady, the total should be hit early.
Pick: New England Patriots / Miami Dolphins *Over 48.5