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NFL Pick – Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Defense Looks to be Key

Our Buffalo vs Kansas City pick for Sunday, January 24, 2021 is for the AFC Championship game. The oddsmakers have the Chiefs favored by 3.0 (-103), while the Bills are the underdogs at +3.0 (-105). Against the spread over the past 10 games, the Bills are 9-1. On the other hand, over their past nine games KC is 0-8-1. In an earlier game this season, the Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17.

The game will be played at Arrow Head Stadium in Kansas City, MO with kickoff scheduled for 6:40 pm ET. Temperature at game time will be 39 degrees with winds out of the NE at 8mph. It will be cloudy with a 6% chance of precipitation. By the way, check out our Bucs vs Packers NFC Championship pick,

Buffalo vs Kansas City Pick – Offenses

Both of these offenses can churn out points. Buffalo is averaging 31.3 PPG while the Chiefs have recorded 29.6 PPG. The Bills are averaging 299.1 YPG in the air and 107.7 YPG on the ground. The Chiefs as passing for 312.8 YPG and rushing for 112.4 YPG. Statistically, these two offenses are very close.

In 2020-2021, Buffalo QB Josh Allen completed 69.2% of his passes for 4,544 yards, tossing 37 TD passes and 10 picks. He’s been sacked 26 times. He’s rushed for eight scores. Elusive WR Stefon Diggs has 1,535 receiving yards, scoring eight times. He has 127 catches. Also, WR Gabriel Davis has seven scoring catches and Cole Beasley has 82 receptions for four TDs. He has 967 receiving yards. With RB Jack Moss out, Devin Singletary has been the primary ball carrier. He’s averaging 4.4 YPA.

QB Patrick Mahomes is the center of the Kansas City offense. Mahomes, who’s completing 66.3% of his passes, has thrown for 4,470 yards and 38 TDs. He’s given up just six interceptions and been sacked 22 times. WR Tyreek Hill is a dual threat. He tops the team with 15 TD catches while TE Travis Kelce tops the team with 1,416 receiving yards. He has 11 scoring catches. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who rushed for close to 900 yards, has four scores. He’s averaging 4.4 YPA.

Bills vs Chiefs Spread Prediction – Defenses

Our Buffalo vs Kansas City pick notes that the Bills are allowing just 13.5 PPG. The KC defense is also pretty tight, as they are giving up 17.0 PPG. The Buffalo D has had a tough tie stopping the run, as they’re allowing opponents 156.5 ground YPG. On defense, the Chiefs are especially sound at stopping the pass, giving up merely 204.0 air YPG.

Defensive stats are overall close. But Buffalo does have an edge. In sacks, it’s 38-32, TFL 97-59, and PD 76-64. All of these stats are in favor of the Bills. KC does have 16 picks to Buffalo’s 15. Forced fumbles favor the bills 15-13 as doe recoveries 11-6.

For Buffalo, CB Tre’Davious White looks to be a major factor. He’s three picks and 11 PD. DE Mario Addison has posted five sacks and 7.5 TFL. KC safety Tyrann Mathieu is everywhere. He’s made a half-dozen interceptions and defended nine passes. DT Chris Jones has accumulated 7.5 sacks, 4.5 TFL, and four PD.

Buffalo vs Kansas City Pick – Final Word

Our Buffalo vs Kansas City pick finds that these two high-powered offenses. On the other hand, although they both possess fine defenses, we think the Bills have the edge in that area. We do find that Buffalo will cover at +3.0. After all, they have tended to do so all season and KC has mainly managed not to cover.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Summary

Buffalo Bills at +3.0 (-105)


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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