Super Bowl

Super Bowl LIII Betting Counterpoint: DO Bet on Props

With Some Research These Special Wagers Aren't Just Random

Depending on who you ask, some gamblers will say that betting on Super Bowl props is just burning your money while others suggest prop wagers are a great way to add to your bankroll one last time on this NFL season. There are 100s of wagers available for Super Bowl LIII prop betting so obviously there’s going to be some randoms in there.

Events such as “will there be a streaker during the game” listed at Yes +2000 could be considered a waste of money because there’s no analytics to determine if a fan is going to get into booze and race on to the field without pants. There are other bets that actually involve the game that can be rationalized. Here are some of those types of bets:

MVP of the Game

Bot the Patriots and Rams had a top 5 total yardage offense on the season so there’d be no surprise if Super Bowl LIII was high scoring and the MVP was an offensive player.

For New England, Tom Brady (+140) is a no-brainer for MVP if New England wins. Isn’t there tremendous value in Sony MIchel (+1200) though as he’s averaged 27 carries in the Patriots two playoff wins and has scored 5 rushing TD? James White (+2000) was targeted 17 times in the AFC championship game and probably should have been MVP of Super Bowl LI when he had 14 catches for 110 yards and a TD and added 2 more scores on the ground. Julian Edelman (+2000) has been targeted on average nearly a dozen times in this postseason.

Super Bowl LIII prop betting
Gronkowski to win MVP at 33/1 in what could be his last game? Why not?

If the Rams win, Jared Goff (+250) will likely have had a solid outing. He hasn’t really lit up this postseason however. Brandin Cooks (+4000) was targeted 7 times for 107 yards in the NFC championship game and would love to explode against his former team New England. Todd Gurley (+900) was a league MVP candidate for 10-12 weeks during the regular season. If the Rams do shut down the Patriots offense to get the win, wouldn’t Aaron Donald (+900) the defensive MVP of the year be a likely candidate for game MVP?

First to Score a TD

Sony Michel (+550) has scored the Patriots first TD in 3 of the last 7 games all from within 5 yards or less. James Develin (+5000) also has two 1-yard plunges in that span. The Pats have a tendency to meticulously drive the field for their first score ultimately topping it off from close to the goalline.

Super Bowl LIII prop betting
It’s not even a probability but closer to a likelihood that Sony Michel tallies the first TD of Super Bowl LIII

How Many Players Will Have a Reception?
How Many Players Will Have a Rush Attempt?
Total Net Yards in the Game?

If you’ve got the right read on the spread and totals of the game, wouldn’t it make sense to pad your winnings with correlating Super Bowl LIII prop betting? For example, if you’ve got the Patriots in a blow out, the Rams are going to be throwing the ball all over the field to try and make a comeback. Think it’s going to be a low scoring affair well below the O/U of 56? It would make sense then that a well balanced running attack would be the cause.

Summary: 5 Reasons To Bet Prop Bets During Super Bowl LIII

There are some Super Bowl LIII prop betting that is completely random such as what Gatorade color will be dumped on the winning coach but others are either number, trend, or even “gut” based that have just as good a chance of winning as losing. Here are 5 reasons to bet on props for Super Bowl LIII.

  • You Can Make Money – Nobody says prop bets have to lose. Sure something like betting on the number in roulette are long shots, but when ‘Black 11’ hits it’s a nice payday. Many NFL prop bets are basically ‘yes’ or ‘no’ so you have to like those chances.
  • You Don’t Have to Bet a Lot – Something like “will there be a blocked punt” at -1000 has a horrible ROI. Taking a $5 flier on Chris Hogan to win MVP at 80/1 costs less than the salsa dip you’ll need for the game.
  • It’s Entertaining – The Super Bowl is a spectacle and a great party day where even the commercials are anticipated. Why not make every play of the game count as you have a total yardage prop, MVP bet, etc. hanging in the balance?
  • There’s Not Going to Be NFL Betting For Awhile – If you don’t follow the NBA, NHL, or MLB then Super Bowl LIII marks the end of your wagering season. Squeeze out as many bets as you can on your final day before the 7-month layoff.
  • You Can Supplement (or Hedge) Your Game Wagers – There’s been two weeks since the last NFL football game not called the Pro Bowl so you probably have an idea of which way you’re leaning on the Super Bowl LIII side and total. If you’re correct on those leans, you know the prop bets that will correlate with that result (MVP will be a Patriot if New England wins). Even if you’re not confident on the side or totals, Super Bowl LIII prop betting on the opposite sides can help you hedge some of your bigger wagers.
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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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