One of the most tempting teams on the 4th of July slate for this afternoon has to be the Brewers. Oddsmakers have listed them at just -106 at home this afternoon up against the Twins. Minnesota has already dropped the first 2 games of this series and is 1-7 on their recent road trip through Chicago and Milwaukee. The Twins do send their ace to the mound, but he’s coming off his worst start of the year. Are the Brewers that obvious of a no-brainer in the July 4th MLB free pick?
Twins Had Been Scoring, Just Not Winning
Overall the Minnesota offense doesn’t look that impressive over their last 10 with four games scoring 2 runs or less. In a recent span of 5 games however the Twins have put up 5+ runs in four of them. That could bode well in the July 4th NL free pick against Milwaukee starter Chase Anderson who has been prone to some first inning troubles this year. The Twins have only faced Anderson a total of 9 career AB, but they do have some hot hitters overall including Mitch Garver who is 5 for his last 9 and Ehire Adrianza who is batting at a .389 clip the past week.
Besides wanting some hitting, Paul Molitor would like his starting pitcher Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.42 ERA) to return to form after a rough outing last time out. Berrios surrendered 6ER in just 4.1 IP against the Cubs although he was facing a strong wind blowing out in Wrigley which was a big factor in the 2 HR allowed. In four starts prior to that game, the young right hander allowed just 4 ER total in 28.1 IP. The only Brewers batter Berrios has ever faced is Brad Miller.
Milwaukee Turns to the Up and Down Anderson
Anderson (6-6, 4.18 ERA) has an almost unfathomable 7.31 ERA in the 1st inning this season but when he’s made it through that frame he can usually settle down nicely. That is especially true over Anderson’s last four starts. Take away a 6ER allowed performance on June 17th, Anderson has given up just 5 hits in three of the last four and 2 ER. That’s another major reason that the July 4th MLB free pick has such a low O/U of 8.5.
The Milwaukee offense would also like to see a little bit of improvement headed into Wednesday afternoon’s tilt. The Brewers have won 4 of their last 6, but have also been limited to 3ER or less in three of the last four. Jesus Aguilar has been on a pretty good rip, batting .364 with 2HR over the past 6 games. Eric Thames also has 3HR over the past week and the Brewers will likely need all they can get today against Berrios.
July 4th MLB Free Pick
Surprisingly there’s not the crazy amount of public betting on the Brewers that you’d might think considering just 51% are on the home team. There’s good value on either side and Minnesota isn’t a bad play at -104. Even so, it’s been a long road trip for the Twins and their bats should be kind of quiet today. Since Berrios can shut down the Brewers as well, don’t expect much fireworks in this outing.
Free Pick: Minnesota Twins / Milwaukee Brewers *Under 8.5*