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Tuesday July 3rd MLB Free Pick

Is It Time To Ride Philadelphia As One of the Best Under-the-Radar Plays of the Day?

Major League Baseball has given bettors a full slate of games all afternoon as they celebrate the 4th of July holiday a bit early. On paper the Orioles at Phillies Interleague matchup doesn’t scream a huge marquee game, but Philadelphia could offer one of the best wagers of the day – or so it seems. Oddsmakers are going to make you pay for the Phillies in the July 3rd MLB free pick with a line of PHI -152, but with one of the best up-and-coming pitchers on the bump is that a small price to pay?

Baltimore Fading Fast in the AL East

July 3rd MLB free pick
Cobb hasn’t really provided the return that Baltimore brass though he would when they signed the free agent.

You’re going to have to chalk 2018 up to ‘one of those years’ if you’re a fan of any team not named the Red Sox or Yankees in the AL East. The two division powerhouses are both on their way to 100 wins and one squad is going to have to play another 90-100 win team in either Seattle or Houston in a one-game wild card. The collateral damage in all of this is the Orioles, who are already 31.5 games off the pace in the division. Baltimore is playing like their season is all but over too, having dropped 7 of their last 8 games. The Orioles, ranked 3rd to last in runs/game and last in the majors in BA have been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of the last 8. With a less than favorable matchup against a solid Philadelphia pitcher, does the July 3rd MLB free pick O/U of 9 seem a bit high?

If Baltimore fails to muster much offense on Tuesday, it’s going to be up to Alex Cobb (2-9, 6.75 ERA) to keep the Phillies offense at bay. That may be a tall task considering the right hander has allowed 5ER or more in 4 of the last 7 starts. Cobb has shown flashes of why the Orioles signed him in the offseason, including two starts of 1ER or less over the last 5 but his inconsistency makes for a hard play on Tuesday.

Philadelphia Aims to Wrap Up Home Stand Strong

July 3rd MLB free pick
Jorge Alfaro is the only Phillies regular hitting over .300 the past 7 days. Can he carry the Phils’ to a win tonight?

The Phillies are probably going to be in a 3-team battle for the NL East most of the Summer, currently sitting 3.5 GB from the Braves and 3.5 up on the Nationals. The need wins in both games of this two game set against the 24-59 Orioles. The Orioles have the advantage of being at home, where they are wrapping up a 9-game stand at Camden Yards – going 4-1 in their last 5 in Baltimore. What’s been impressive about the Phillies winning is that they haven’t exactly been tearing it up on offense, scoring 3ER or less in 4 of their last 7. Nobody knows what to expect from the Philadelphia offense in the July 3rd MLB free pick as only Carlos Santana has ever faced O’s starter Alex Cobb.

What we can expect on Tuesday is a solid pitching performance from Phils’ starter Zach Eflin (6-2, 3.02 ERA) if he throws in July like he did in June. Last month the 6’6″ right hander was 5-0 with just a 1.76 ERA. He’s allowed just 6 runs through his last 5 starts (30.2 IP) but will be making his first appearance against any Baltimore batters.

July 3rd MLB Free Pick Betting

As expected there’s a lot of public betting on Philly and Eflin tonight as about 76% of wagers are on the Phillies side. Even so, there’s good value against a trending pitcher up against a struggling offense. The Orioles really struggle against RH pitching as well going 14-43 in their last 57 against righties. Baltimore is starting 7-8 RH batters today and that bodes very well for Eflin and the Phils getting a big win.

Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+117)

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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