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Tuesday August 6th MLB Betting Free Pick: Phillies at Diamondbacks

Another High Scoring Affair In Store in Game Two of This Series?

It was tough to find value in Philadelphia on Monday night considering they had just lost 2 of 3 at home to Chicago over the weekend. It was the White Sox first series win since the all-star break. The Phillies proved to be the play on the road at +106 however with a 7-3 win over the Diamondbacks. The August 6th MLB betting free pick shifts momentum back to the home team Arizona on Tuesday as they are -142 favorites in this one (PHI +126).

Can Phillies Bats Stay Hot Tuesday?

August 6th MLB betting free pick
Harper sported a trim on Monday as he tries to battle through a batting slump.

The 7-3 win on Monday night was a big one for the Phillies considering some of their big name bats were struggling coming into Chase Field. Bryce Harper shaved his beard and was 2-5 but his average is still just .174 over the past week. Rhys Hoskins walked twice Monday, but is hitting just .154 over the past 7 games. The Phillies have now won four straight road games and won for just the 2nd time in the last 7 at Arizona.

Jake Arrieta is kind of a mystery for the Phillies in the August 6th MLB betting free pick. On one hand, Arrieta has been solid for the most part as of late allowing 1ER or less in 3 of his last 4 starts. Then again, the right-hander has been battling a bone spur in his throwing elbow which means the 5th inning is about his ceiling. Perhaps the most important thing about Philadelphia’s win on Monday is that starter Vince Velasquez went 7 strong innings meaning the Phillies bullpen should be rested. Arrieta matched up with Arizona on June 11th, allowing 3ER over 6.0 IP but struggling with control a bit with 4 BBs.

Diamondbacks in a Big Rut Right Now

August 6th MLB betting free pick
Leake makes his Arizona debut on Tuesday.

With Philadelphia’s win on Monday they pulled into the lead for the 2nd wild card spot in the NL. The Diamondbacks were sellers at the trade deadline sending Zack Greinke packing, but Arizona is still just 3.5 games out of a possible postseason berth. The D’Backs offense had looked good putting up 25 runs on Saturday and Sunday vs. the Nationals, but they were silenced by Velasquez in the series opener to 3 runs on 9 hits. 3 errors by the Arizona defense didn’t help their cause either as two of Philadelphia’s runs were unearned. Arizona hits Arrieta at a combined almost .300, but they have never took the Phillies starter deep in 81 total AB.

The Diamondbacks are 3-5 over their last 8 but they weren’t completely sellers at the trade deadline. Mike Leake was acquired with only minutes to spare and will make his Arizona debut in the August 6th MLB betting free pick. Leake is from Arizona and has been amped up about pitching for his hometown team for years. The right-hander allowed 3+ runs in 3 of his last 5 starts with Seattle, but also held opponents to a combined 0 ER in the other two outings.

Top Trends:

  • Phillies are 4-0 last 4 road games
  • Phillies are 5-0 in Arrieta’s last 5 starts with 4 days rest
  • Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 road games
  • Diamondbacks are 1-4 last 5 games vs. RH starter
  • Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall

August 6th MLB Betting Free Pick

-142 is a lot to lay for a Diamondbacks team that has been more miss than hit as of late. The line jumped from the -117 open as 61% of public bettors are on the D’Backs. That likely comes from a lack of trust in Arrieta – albeit somewhat warranted. The teams were lucky to hit the ‘over’ 9.5 on Monday thanks to some late runs from the Phillies but Tuesday’s affair should be lower scoring. Arrieta can be solid – if only for 5 innings – and Leake should be amped for his D’Backs debut.

MLB Free Pick: Phillies / Diamondbacks *Under* 9.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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