Are oddsmakers baiting us in with the line of Milwaukee -5.5 in the January 8th NBA Jazz at Bucks pick? The Bucks have been a double digit favorite in the last three games, and are playing their 4th straight at the Fiserv Forum, where they are 4-0 on the season.
The Jazz meanwhile come into Friday’s tilt in their 4th straight road game. This trip has included a 34 point loss at Brooklyn as well as a 12 point loss to the Knicks on Wednesday with Utah a -7.5 favorite. This looks like too easy of a Bucks win, but only 54% of the betting public are on the home team and the line hasn’t wavered from the open.
How Do Jazz Keep This One Close?
Utah has been on the road the last three games, but this trip did start off with a dominating 130-109 win in San Antonio. The loss to the Knicks on Wednesday also came on the back-to-back, even though the Jazz should’ve been well rested after going down 63-44 to the Nets the night before.
There’s just not much to bank on an upset heading into the NBA Jazz at Bucks pick. Utah is middle of the pack on both offense and defense, and could be without two key bench contributors with Joe Ingles (Achilles) and Derrick Favors (knee) both on the injury report.
Of course Utah still has Donovan Mitchell, but he’s scored over 25 points just once this season. Rudy Gobert has double digit rebounds in all but one game this season, but the Bucks are also the 3rd best team on the boards this season with a 53.5% rebounding rate.
Bucks Ready to Get Out and Run?
The Jazz run the 4th slowest pace in the league, but Milwaukee has the 7th fastest tempo, so which team is going to cave to the other’s style? The Bucks are on a high-scoring run with 125+ points in three straight, but they’ve also played the Bulls and have had two games with the Pistons over that span.
Milwaukee is just 5-3 on the year, but they’ve run their record to 4-0 at home. Besides the three straight over the Pistons and Bulls, the Bucks also dominated Golden State 138-99 in their other home game this season. What kind of fight are the Jazz going to put up playing their fourth straight on the road, with three more away games upcoming after Friday’s tilt?
The Jazz led by as many as 18 points in Wednesday’s loss to the Knicks and still lost by a dozen. Why aren’t oddsmakers making this game a double digit spread – as the Bucks would seemingly still have value? Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks with 26/10, but Khris Middleton (21.1) and Jrue Holiday (14.8) give the Bucks too many options for Utah’s #22 ranked offense to keep up with.
Free NBA Jazz at Bucks Pick
This game has trap written all over it, as the Bucks should be a double digit favorite in nearly every home game they play this season. It’s just really hard to pull the trigger on a Jazz team playing their 4th straight on the road, while Milwaukee is in their 4th in a row at Fiserv. It’s time to play the don’t overthink it card, and just go with the Bucks in a whitewash.
Milwaukee 121 – Utah 106
Free Pick: Bucks -5.5