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Sunday May 20th MLB Free Pick

Brewers Wrap Up Long Road Trip Aiming For a Sweep at Minnesota

One of the major reasons that Milwaukee has climbed into a 1.5 game lead in the NL Central has been because of their ability to get the job done on the road. The Brew Crew is 18-9 away from Miller Park this season and they’ll be traveling once again in the May 20th MLB free pick. Milwaukee wraps up a 10 game road trip at Target Field against a Twins team that is just 8-11 on their home field this season. Can Minnesota avoid the sweep or do the Brewers keep rolling?

Brewers Look to Keep Offense Going

May 20th MLB free pick
Villar is hitting over .400 the last week.

Milwaukee is ranked just 21st in the MLB in runs/game but they’ve been on a scoring tear lately. The Brewers are 7-2 on their recent road trip, scoring 7+ runs in five of those contests. It’s been Jonathan Villar mostly leading the way with a .417 (10-24) average the past 7 days. 1B Jesus Aguilar has hit 4HR over that span as well, including 3 in the last 2 days. Milwaukee has hit just .189 against today’s Twins starter Jake Odorizzi, but that’s over a very small sample size of just 37 AB.

Taking the rock for Milwaukee as they aim for the sweep in the May 20th MLB free pick is Junior Guerra (3-3, 3.08 ERA). The right hander had a great start to the year with just 2ER allowed through his first four starts. He hit a bit of a rough patch with 9 total ER surrendered in back-to-back starts but bounced back nicely the last time out with a 3-hitter at Arizona. It’s hard to predict what version of Guerra we see today, but Minnesota does hit right-handers well with a .401 wOBA.

Twins Only 2.5 Back in the AL Central

May 20th MLB free pick
Minnesota’s Brian Dozier has a HR in his only career AB against Milwaukee’s Guerra.

Minnesota has dropped 5 of their last 6 games including the first two in this series but they’re still just 2.5 games back from Cleveland in the division. What’s interesting is that Minnesota has lost 4 of 5 on their home stand and they’re one of the few teams within striking distance of 1st place in a division that has a losing record at home (the other being 7-11 Colorado). Logan Morrison and Eddie Rosario are both hitting over .320 the past week, but the Twins offense has taken a hit now that Joe Mauer will miss some time with a neck strain.

If Minnesota can’t get the offense going in the May 20th MLB free pick, it will be up to Odorizzi (3-2, 3.35 ERA) to keep the game close. The right hander has pitched well as of late, with 3 outings of 1ER or less in his last four starts. The Brewers will strike out against RH pitching with a 23.4% K rate and Odorizzi has 7+ SO in two of his last three starts. Oddsmakers are still expecting a rather high scoring affair however in setting the O/U for today’s game at 9.

May 20th MLB Free Pick Betting

There would expect to be heavy action on the Brewers today considering their recent success and the fact that the line has been set with the Twins actually favored at MIN -125. There’s incredible value on Milwaukee at +115 but the public seems to be wary of this with just 54% of the public backing the underdog. Odorizzi has pitched well lately and Twins bats can get rolling at times against RH pitching. Milwaukee has been on the road for the past 10 days and could just be ready to get back home today.

Free Pick: Minnesota Twins -125


Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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