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College Basketball Pick – St. Mary’s Gaels vs #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Will Zags Dominate Gaels?

Our St Mary’s vs Gonzaga pick has these two rivals battling for the second time this season. The Gaels and Bulldogs last met a month ago on January 16. Gonzaga beat St Mary’s 59-73. In this matchup, the home team Dogs are -20.0 (-105), while the visiting Gaels are +20 (-105).

Over their past five games, St Mary’s has won two and lost three. They are coming off a 60-58 loss to Pepperdine. In 2020-2021, the Gaels are 2-4 in the West Coast Conference and 11-6 on the season. This year, Gonzaga is undefeated with an 11-0 conference record and 20-0 overall mark. In the WCC, Gonzaga is 6.5 games ahead of eighth-place St Mary’s.

The Gaels vs Bulldogs matchup will be played Thursday, February 18, 2021 at McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, WA. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 pm ET.

St Mary’s vs Gonzaga Pick – Stats

Statistically, SMC has a few things going for them. They possess a sound defense that is holding opponents to 61.8 PPG. Also, the Gaels are grabbing a respectable 35.1 RPG and blocking 3.1 SPG. In those categories, the Bulldogs come in with 69.3 PA, 38.6 RPG, and 3.2 BPG. Thus, SMC is better in just one area, points allowed per game. Still, they are close in the other two.

However, the Bulldogs are dominant when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard. They’re averaging 93.1 PPG and have a field goal success rate of 55.1%. Plus, this team, with 19.3 APG, can keep the ball moving. In comparison, the Gaels are averaging 66.4 PPG, and 11.2 APG and come to the court tonight with a 44.3 FG%. Also, of note statistically are these teams’ three-point success rates. The visitors are completing just 31.7% of their attempts while the Zags are good on 35.6%. Plus, the Bulldogs have a couple of players who are good on over 40% of their three-point attempts, and they are the team’s top scorers. As a result, Zaga has a major edge.

Gaels vs Bulldogs – Players

Speaking of top scorers and major edges in our St Mary’s vs Gonzaga pick, two forwards, Drew Timme and Corey Kispert, top the Zags in points per game and three-point percentage. Timme is averaging 19.4 PPG and hitting 42.9% of his threes, while Kispert has been good for 19.4 PPG and has recorded a three-point mark of 47.9%. Timme is grabbing 7.3 RPG while completing 64% of his field goals. Kispert is shooting 55.8% from the field. In the backcourt, three guards combine for an average of 12.3 APG. Jalen Suggs, who’s good for 4.4 APG, leads all guards with 14.2 PPG. Guard Joel Ayayi tops all Bulldogs with 7.4 RPG while adding 3.4 APG and 11.3 PPG. He’s completing 58.2% of his field goals.

The Gaels come to this game with four players, three of whom are guards, who are double-digit scorers. In the back, Tommy Kuhse, the on-court general, is good for 14.1 PPG and 5.4 APG. In the paint, Matthias Tass is averaging 10.7 PPG and 5.1 RPG while completing 52.3% of his shots. Guards Logan Johnson and Alex Ducas are also major contributors with the former averaging 11.5 PPG and 3.5 RPG and the latter good for 10.0 PPG and 5.3 RPG.

St Mary’s vs Gonzaga Pick – Final Word

Our St Mary’s vs Gonzaga pick notes that the Zags look to be dominant in this game. Note, in their last 20 contests versus the Bulldogs, the Gaels are 5-15 ATS. Also, in their last eight games played in February, St Mary’s is 2-6 ATS. One other stat, in their last 20 games on a Thursday at home, Gonzaga is 13-6-1 ATS. This game could be won by 17, 20, or 22 points. Consequently, we’re thinking it will be the Zags by more than 20.

Prediction Summary – St Mary’s Gaels vs #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Point Spread Pick – #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs at -20 (-105)


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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