UFC fight night Austin betting will go on – not necessarily as planned – with the move to the Apex in Las Vegas. Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker headlines the 6-bout main event that features two heavyweight matchups as well a women’s fight and plenty of huge favorites. Let’s get to the breakdown:
Sean Woodson (-550) vs. Julian Erosa (+375)
Visa issues have forced Kyle Nelson out of his fight with Sean Woodson (7-0) so now Julian Erosa (23-9) takes the bout on short notice. The 30-year-old Erosa definitely has a lot of fights under his belt, but he’s dropped 4 straight in the UFC after a winning debut.
Three of Erosa’s defeats have come via the KO, including last May vs. Julio Arce that got him cut from the promotion. Woodson is a huge favorite with Erosa coming in on short rest, but the 28-year-old only has one UFC fight on his resume and that was way back in October. Erosa has only fought at CageSport 60 in February, scoring a 1st round KO over AJ Bryant so he does have some momentum.
Pick: Total rounds under 1.5 +120
Tanner Boser (-110) vs. Philipe Lins (-120)
Philipe Lins (14-4) may have an advantage in UFC fight night Austin betting as he’s already experienced fighting in front of an empty arena back on May 13th. Make no mistake that outing was horrible, a U-DEC loss to 41-year-old Andrei Arlovsky. Tanner Boser (17-6-1) has gone the distance in both of his UFC fights, splitting them 1-1.
Oddsmakers are calling this heavyweight fight a close one with two relatively green UFC combatants. Boser has seen some criticism for being a ‘boring’ fighter as far as heavyweights go with 12 of his last 15 going the distance. It would be easy to see Boser try to change that reputation on Saturday and combined with Lins’ spitfire approach that has seen 10 of his last 11 fights end early that should be the result here.
Pick: NO, fight does not go the distance +150
Brendan Allen (-310) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+240)
Brendan Allen (14-3) seems a bit overpriced in UFC fight night Austin betting considering his opponent Kyle Daukaus (9-0) is undefeated in his MMA career. Allen has ended both of his UFC fights early though (SUB, KO) while this will be Daukaus’ debut in the promotion.
Daukaus is a Jiu-jitsu expert who has won 8 of his 9 career fights via submission. 13 of Allen’s 14 wins have also come via stoppage though. Allen was originally scheduled to face Ian Heinisch who backed out which does give Daukaus short notice. Both fighters can end this one early but are also very comfortable on the mat in defense.
Pick: Over 1.5 rounds -130
Maurice Greene (-250) vs. Gian Villante (+195)
Gian Villante (17-11) moves up to heavyweight for the first time in his UFC career as he matches up with Maurice Greene (8-5) on Saturday night. Villante is just 2-4 over his last 6 in the light heavyweight decision, getting KO’d in two of those. Greene is on a two fight losing streak of his own though, a KO and a SUB.
The 6’7″ Greene does have a good size advantage here though over the 6’3″ Villante which also adds up to a 6″ longer arm reach and +2.5″ on the legs. Villlante absorbs a lot of strikes per minute (5.3) but that’s going to take its toll vs. the heavyweights. Villante doesn’t have to cut which should see him more energized though and we could see these two feel each other out for a bit.
Pick: Fight completes 2 full rounds +110
Mike Perry (-325) vs. Mickey Gall (+250)
The co-main event for UFC fight night Austin sees Mike Perry (13-6) seemingly very overpriced vs. Mickey Gall (6-2). Perry is an ‘all-in’ fighter as 11 of his 13 wins have come via the KO. That has also led to ‘Platinum’ getting KO’d in the 1st round at UFC 245 in December.
Perry shouldn’t have to worry about ‘catching one’ vs. Mickey Gall who doesn’t have a KO win under his belt. 5 of Gall’s 6 wins have come via submission though. There’s a lot of weirdness surrounding this fight as this week Gall called Perry ‘an insecure dude’ who is regressing. Perry also replaced his entire corner with just his girlfriend, hoping for ‘peace and quiet.’
Pick: Mickey Gall +250
Dustin Poirier (-230) vs. Dan Hooker
Saturday night’s main event is a matchup of Dustin Poirier (25-6) vs. Dan Hooker (20-8). Poirier had received performance bonuses in 5 of 6 fights before losing a title unification bout to Khabib at UFC 242 in December. Either way it’s a great opportunity for Hooker, who has been victorious in 7 of his last 8.
As per usual, the 5”9″ Poirier will be facing a height and reach advantage vs. the 6’0 Hooker. Both fighters are versatile as each have over 10+ KO’s, 7+ SUBS, and 3+ DEC on their resume.
It’s hard to judge Poirier by his 3rd round SUB vs. Khabib because he makes everybody look bad. Before that Poirier scored wins over top tier opponents that have included Holloway, Alvarez, Gaethje, and Pettis with 3 coming by KO. . Hooker has been solid lately, but against a much lower quality of competition.
Pick: Poirier inside distance -115.