A Blake Snell vs. CC Sabathia matchup looks like a low scoring affair on paper and the O/U for the July 6th MLB betting free pick is just 8.5. That being said, Snell has been lit up by the Yankees in his last few starts against them and Sabathia has had a couple clunkers over his last six. Oddsmakers have still set Tampa Bay at -135 (NY+115) even though the Yankees have scored back to back 8-4 wins in this series. Is the value on New York in this one?
Sabathia Trending Up – But Unpredictable
New York turns to the veteran CC Sabathia on Saturday afternoon. The left-hander has posted two straight strong starts allowing just 3ER total over 12.0 IP. One of those outings was a June 19th start vs. the Rays (6.0 IP, 3H, 1ER) but also at home. Sabathia has surrendered 9ER in his last two road starts (9.2 IP). Sabathia has a 6.30 ERA on the road (2.31 at Yankee Stadium) but is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA vs. the Rays in 3 starts in 2019.
While Sabathia has struggled at times on the road, he might not need his best stuff if the Yankee bats continue to surge. NY has taken the first two in this weekend series by a combined score of 16-8. Gary Sanchez had a big HR on Thursday while Aaron Judge hit two on Friday to lead the charge. Sanchez has 4HR in 15 career AB vs. Snell and DJ LeMahieu has also had success vs. the Tampa Bay starter, going 4-9 (.444).
Rays Try to Avoid 4th Straight Loss
Tampa Bay has fallen to 8.5 GB in the East but are still in the lead of the wild card with a lot of baseball yet to play. That being said, the Rays haven’t played well lately dropping 3 in a row including six straight to the Yankees. Tampa Bay has now gone just 4-4 so far on their 10-game home stand before the all-star break including losses to Baltimore and Texas. Tampa Bay has also dropped 7 of their last 9 to New York at Tropicana Field when Sabathia gets the start.
Despite everything seemingly working against them, the Rays are still significant -135 favorites in the July 6th MLB betting free pick. That’s because their ace Blake Snell gets the ball on Saturday afternoon. The left-hander has been uncharacteristically shaky as of late however, giving up 6+ ER in 3 of his last 6. Those rough outings were all away from the Trop however and Snell’s ERA at home (3.32) is much better than on the road (6.48). Snell has struggled vs. the Yankees though, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts vs. NY this season. He gave up 6 runs and recorded just 1 out vs. New York in a start on June 19th.
- Yankees are 7-1 last 8 road games
- Yankees are 7-2 last 9 road games vs. LH starter
- Yankees are 1-4 in Sabathia’s last 5 road starts
- Rays are 2-5 last 7 vs. LH starter
- Rays are 21-7 in Snell’s last 28 road starts
- Yankees are 5-1 in last 6 in Tampa Bay
July 6th MLB Betting Free Pick
Everything is saying Yankees in this one including the tempting line of New York +115. That usually means Snell will come out and dazzle though leading to a Tampa Bay win. There’s not much value on the TB -135 line, but if Snell indeed is great, a low scoring game is more likely.
MLB Free Pick: Yankees / Rays *Under* 8.5