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Saturday August 31st MLB Betting Free Pick: Padres at Giants

Oddsmakers Calling It a Toss-Up Game From Oracle Park

San Francisco is at home in the August 31st MLB betting free pick but oddsmakers are still setting the line at SF -109 vs. the Padres (SD -103). Both teams have struggled as of late and have split the first two of their 4-game weekend series so far. San Diego looks to have the edge in the pitching matchup, but does that make the Padres the road play?

San Diego Has Struggled vs. the Giants

August 31st MLB betting free pick
Lucchesi will try to quiet the Giants bats on Saturday.

The Padres won Thursday’s series opener 5-3 which was a big victory considering San Diego had lost 8 of 9 prior to the Giants. The Padres have had some impressive wins over the last two weeks, beating Boston and winning against the Dodgers but it still seems like the Padres only get a win a series. Plus the wins weren’t that big of an upset considering San Diego was favored in the win over the Red Sox and just a +131 underdog vs. the Dodgers. Overall the Padres are just 3-7 in their last 10.

San Diego seemingly has the pitching edge in the August 31st MLB betting free pick with Joey Lucchesi on the hill but the team is just 2-6 the last 8 starts. You don’t get a very deep outing from Lucchesi as he hasn’t gotten out of the 6th since July 7th, but the lefty has still been effective. Lucchesi has allowed 8 total ER in his last four starts. He also went 6.0 innings vs. the Giants on July 26th allowing just 2 hits and a run. Overall Lucchesi has a 4.22 ERA in four starts vs. San Francisco on the year.

Can Giants Get Offense Going Saturday Night?

August 31st MLB betting free pick
Webb makes his first home start on Saturday.

Even though he’s made four starts against them this season, only six active Giants batters have ever faced San Diego’s Lucchesi. San Francisco hasn’t had a whole lot of success against him either, posting just a .196 average in those 46 ABs. The Giants offense did come to life on Friday in an 8-3 win that snapped their 3-game losing skid. Brandon Belt and Buster Posey both had 3-hit nights but are just a combined 2 for 18 vs. Lucchesi. The SF offense could struggle in the August 31st MLB betting free pick as the O/U is just 8.5.

One thing the Giants have going for them ahead of Saturday night’s tilt is that Madison Bumgarner had a strong outing on Friday with 7.0 IP. The bullpen is on the rested side as Logan Webb gets the nod in game three. Webb is making just his third MLB start on Saturday, and he hasn’t pitched out of the 5th inning so far. The previous two starts were on the road for the rookie, so he should be a bit calmer in front of the home crowd.

Top Trends:

  • Padres are 11-23 last 34 Saturday games
  • Padres are 2-6 in Lucchesi’s last 8 starts
  • Giants are 1-4 last 5 home games
  • Padres are 2-8 last 10 H2H meetings 

August 31st MLB Betting Free Pick

The Giants have seen Lucchesi for 4 starts this season and have given him the L in two of those games. San Francisco sends a young pitcher to the mound, but he should have success in a) his first home start and b) against a San Diego offense held to 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 10. The Giants have also beaten the Padres 8 of the last 10 times they’ve played.

Pick: San Francisco Giants -109

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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