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Week 17 NFL Props – Three Pats vs Jets Bets

Get Best Odds on Patriots' Win

It’s Week 17 of the 2018-2019 NFL season and there are games with lots of meaning and others, like the New England Patriots vs New York Jets game, that have less meaning. It’s true that the Patriots would love to win this contest and possibly secure a first-round bye. It would be great for them to simply have to win one game to get to the AFC Championship contest than to have to win two. With that in mind, we have three Patriots vs Jets props.

We do think that each of these are good bets to make. We are also providing three late-game NFL Week 17 props and, in another article, our three best NFL receiver props. First, here are our Patriots vs Jets props for Week 17.

To Score a TD & Team to Win</h2

Bet: Sony Michel/New England (-112)

It’s the Patriots playing the Jets in New England. The Jets have nothing on the line. The Pats do. New England is favored by 13.5 and the moneyline is -770. They are hugely favored. So, we think the win is as close to a done deal as you can get without the game having yet been played. That means, there’s a good chance you’re going to win that half of the bet. So, how about Michel?

We expect the Patriots to run as much as they can. Remember how much they ran last week? In each of the two prior AFC East home wins this season, Michel has scored a touchdown. When the Pats played the Jets earlier in the season, he rushed for 113 yards and a score. We’re thinking like last week against the Buffalo Bills, where he had 116 yards on the ground and a TD, the Michel will have a productive game. Take Michel in our first of three Patriots vs Jets props.

Team with Most Turnovers

Bet: Jets (-120)

Here are some basic stats. New England has the sixth-most takeaways in the NFL (25). The New York Jets have the fourth-most turnovers in the league (27). The Patriots have won this battle at home this season in every game of this season. except the first.

NY quarterback Sam Darnold, who leads the NFL with 15 picks, has not thrown an interception in his last two games. Might he not, in his first game ever on New England home turf, revert to earlier behavior? Take the Jets on this prop.

Pats Win by 1-13 Points

Bet: Pats (+160)

Basically, you’re taking the Pats while saying they won’t cover. It’s a bit like taking the moneyline, which is at -770. You’re getting much better odds here. They’re also better than the spread odds. However, with the moneyline, if the Pats win by more than 13, you still take down the cash. If the team wins by more than 13 with the spread, you are also the victor. But, with this wager, New England has to win by less than 14 points. That’s the challenge.

Note, Bill Belichick wants to win, but often he’s content to win by the minimum. A win is a win for the coach. The margin of victory has little if no meaning. If the Patriots are up by seven and look good as the end of the fourth quarter draws near, Belichick won’t press for another TD. At the most, he’ll run down the clock and, if it’s possible, go for the field goal. We like this prop a lot.

Final Word – Pats vs Jets Props

Obviously, we like all three Pats vs Jets props we’ve listed. If we’re forced to rank them, we find the turnover one the best bet and Sony Michel the second-best wager. That doesn’t mean we don’t think our third and final prop projection is a bad bet. We just find it’s a bit more restrictive than the other two. There is more risk involves, which is why the odds are so good. Be sure to check out our other two other prop bet articles for Week 17 of the NFL.


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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