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MLB Pick: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Chicago Tries to Continue Dominance Over Padres

The San Diego Padres (42-68 Overall, 22-32 Away) and Chicago Cubs (62-45 Overall, 33-19 Home) start a four-game series tonight. The Padres and Cubs have already played one three-game series, which Chicago swept. The Cubs will want to continue that trend tonight. Chicago is in first place in the NL Central by one game, as the Milwaukee Brewers sit in second. In the NL West, San Diego is in last place, 18.5 games away from first-place Arizona. Our Padres play Cubs 2018 MLB free pick has San Diego at +180 and Chicago at -149. The over/under stands at 8.5 with the under favored slightly at -120 and the over at -105. The Cubs with the run line at -1.5 are +133, while the Padres with +1.5 runs are listed at -147.


Lefty Robbie Erlin (1-3 W/L, 3.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) gets the start. Primarily a relief pitcher brought in during early to mid-innings, he appeared in seven games in July pitching a total of 12 innings. In July, he gave up one run and posted an ERA of 0.75. Of the games he’s appeared in during July, the Padres are 1-6. His longest outing this year was on May 28 against the Miami Marlins when he went 5.2 innings, giving up no runs on four hits. The Padres lost that game 7-2.

Mike Montgomery (3-4 W/L, 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), another southpaw, takes the mound for the Cubbies. After going 2-1-3 in June, Montgomery was 0-2-2 in July. Chicago lost all four of those games. In July, he tossed 21 innings, giving up 31 hits and 13 runs for an ERA of 5.57. Montgomery, who also started the season as a reliever, got put into the rotation on May 28. He won that game 7-0, going 5.2 innings and allowing just two hits. In his last appearance, which was on July 27 against St. Louis, Montgomery allowed five runs on 12 hits.


Chicago outpaces San Diego in just about every offensive category. They are +.036 in BA, +19 in homeruns, and +0.52 in OBP. Their slugging percentage is +.062. Those stats represent a mismatch in the area of hitting.

San Diego’s Christian Villanueva (.219 BA, 44 RBI, 19 HR) is having a tough time at the plate, but he does lead the team in homeruns and RBI. Jose Pirela’s .258 BA is tops for this team, while Eric Hosmer leads the Padres in hits with 104 and OBP with a mark of .319. Manuel Margot, who is hitting .249, has 20 doubles and 10 stolen bases.

The Cubs are deep when it comes to hitting. Ben Zobrist (.310 BA, 40 RBI, 7 HRs) tops the team in average and OBP (.399). Javier Baez (.302 BA, 83 RBI, 22 HRs) leads the club in stolen bases with 19 and doubles with 29, as well as RBI and homeruns. Albert Almora Jr. is hitting .306, while Jason Heyward has been smacking the ball at a .281 pace. He has 21 doubles.

Our Padres Play Cubs 2018 MLB Free Pick

When these two teams first met, there were a whole lot of runs scored, and the Cubs won two out of three games handily. The average margin of victory for that first series was three runs. Cub pitchers have a much better opponent OBP, BAA, and SLG%. However, the Padres possess the best save percentage. Our Padres play Cubs 2018 MLB free pick is Chicago with the -1.5 run line at +133. We are also taking over 8.5 (-120).

Summary San Diego at Chicago Picks: Cubs at +133 (-1.5) and over 8.5 (-120)


Paul has been writing about sports betting and sports for more than a decade, offering picks on the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, as well as on college sports and European football. He's written thousands of season and post-season previews, innumerable articles on sports betting strategies, and various books on sports and sports betting.

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