Week Five MNF Over/Under Pick: Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints
Can Drew Breeze Through the Stingiest D in the League?
The 2-1 Washington Redskins visit the 3-1 New Orleans Saints tonight for a Monday Night Football matchup that features two quarterbacks who love to pass and one who will likely set a new NFL record for most career passing yards. The Skins are not only atop the NFC East, but they are also the only team with a winning record. The Saints are tied for first with the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. Alex Smith commands the offense for Washington and Drew Brees, the man who may break Brett Favre’s and Peyton Manning’s passing records, throws the ball for New Orleans. Our 2018 MNF Redskins play Saints over/under pick offers the over/under starting at 51.5 and up to 52.5.
There are a few Redskins versus Saints trends to consider. The total has gone over in the last five games where these two teams have met. The average total has been 62.8, which is well over tonight’s total of 51.5. In New Orleans last seven games, the total has also gone over. The average total in those games comes in at 60.4. The Saints are averaging 34.3 PPG and the Skins 21.3 PPG.
Stats and Facts
Along with both teams averaging enough points per game to push the score above the over, the home team is giving away points like they’re last year’s calendars. New Orleans PA is at 30.3 per game. That ranks them 30th in the NFL. On the other hand, the Redskins have one of the top defenses in the league. They’re allowing just 14.7 PPG. That’s the lowest points allowed in the league.
In terms of yardage, neither team is generous with ground yards, but the Saints are allowing opponents 323.3 YPG through the air. Washington is giving opposing team’s 199.0 YPG in passing. Brees has excelled against the two weakest defenses in the league, Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and done well against the 19th ranked NY Giants. But the Saints scored their least points, 21, when going up against 12th ranked Cleveland.
We might expect 31 points from Washington in this game. That’s what they scored against the Pack. If that’s the case, can the Saints do something no other team thus far has done against the Skins, score more than 20? Thus far this season, Washington has either kept opponents to either 10 points below their average or to 50% of their average. That would put New Orleans at around 15 to 20 points tonight.
Prime Time and the Record
This game is a Monday Night Football game and there’s a passing record to be broken. Does that mean that perhaps Brees, at home, will be lazar-focused with his passing? Even if Brees, who needs 201 yards to set the new career passing yards mark, is kept to about 250 yards, the Saints could be good for 21-plus points.
MNF Redskins Play Saints Over/Under Pick
We’re going it a shot with our MNF Redskins play Saints over/under pick and taking the over at 51.5. We do think that Smith and the Skins will score points tonight, and that Brees and company will put enough on the scoreboard to push the total over. Also see our MNF Washington and New Orleans spread pick. For our QB props click here, and also use our WR and RB props for this game.