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NLDS Game 1 Padres at Dodgers Betting Preview

This Is Why San Diego Made the Deadline Moves

The San Diego Padres have looked like a playoff team most of the season, but they’ve always known that a potential postseason series with NL West foe the Dodgers was always looming in the future. That is the reason why San Diego bolstered their roster as the most aggressive team at the trade deadline, and now we’ll get to see if that pays off in the Game 1 Padres at Dodgers matchup to kick off the NLDS.

Even though the Mets were slumping towards the end of 2022, it’s still impressive that San Diego advanced out of the wild card round after having to face a starting pitching gauntlet of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Chris Bassitt. That being said, L.A. had the best record in baseball this season (111-51), were 14-5 against the Padres, and are considerable -240 favorites in the opener.

Padres Offense Ready for the Challenge

Any time you can win a three game series while facing multiple time Cy Young award winners it’s a good thing, so San Diego has to have some confidence heading into the game 1 Padres at Dodgers matchup. SD got to Scherzer for 7 runs over 4.2 IP in the wild card opener, and even 2 ER over 6.0 IP against deGrom isn’t a horrible showing.

Forget Juan Soto or Manny Machado, it’s Trent Grisham providing the pop for San Diego going 4-8 with 2 HRs Soto was 4-8 in games 2 and 3 while Machado had a 2-hit game in the clincher so the Padres might be alright at least offensively here.

San Diego went through Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove in the wild card round, so it’s up to Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33 ERA) to get the team off to a solid start in the Game 1 Padres at Dodgers matchup. Clevinger gave up 9 runs to the Dodgers in back to back starts as part of a 7.83 ERA September so he’s got some work to do here.

Dodgers Ready to Start Another Run

Los Angeles has made it to the World Series in 3 of the past 5 seasons, so they have a big experience advantage against a Padres team making just their second trip to the postseason since 2006. L.A. is making their 10th straight playoff appearance.

L.A. hasn’t played a meaningful game in weeks as their 111-51 record was the best in the majors this season and it was good enough to win the NL West by 22 games. The Dodgers also avoid Darvish and others to start the NLDS, instead getting to face Clevinger who they’ve hit .308 against as a team. Mookie Betts has gone 7-15 against the San Diego starter while Will Smith has 2 HRs in 8 career ABs vs. Clevinger.

Urias (17-7, 2.16 ERA) takes the ball for L.A. after a 3-0, 1.19 ERA in September. He was 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA vs. the Padres this season which makes San Diego’s upset bid even harder.

Free Padres at Dodgers Game 1 Betting Pick

Even though this is the game San Diego made all their offseason moves for, just 12% of the betting public like the Padres in the opener. The price keeps climbing on L.A. from the -190 opener with Urias and the Dodgers a -240 favorite in this spot.

The way to go in this game looks to be on the ‘over.’ Clevinger might give up at least 5 runs to this Dodgers offense, and San Diego was dialed in against the Mets with 16 runs in three games.

Free Pick: Over 7.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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