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NFL Week 5 Packers at Cowboys Free Pick

Can Green Bay Follow Saints Blueprint From a Week Ago?

Dallas is off to a successful start to the 2019 campaign at 3-1. They may have some question marks heading into the NFL week 5 Packers at Cowboys free pick though after losing 10-12 at New Orleans last week. Green Bay is also coming off their first loss of the season, a 27-34 Eagles win in Lambeau. Dallas is a -4 favorite for this game, but is that too many points vs. Aaron Rodgers and Co.?

Packers Facing Road Test Sunday

NFL week 5 Packers at Cowboys free pick
Rodgers has never lost a game at Dallas.

The NFL week 5 Packers at Cowboys free pick sees Green Bay going on the road for the 1st time in a month. Make no mistake, the only game for the Packers away from Lambeau Field was a success in a 10-3 win over Chicago, but it was also the first game of the season. Green Bay has played the last 3 games at home, and has to get a win Sunday where Dallas has gone 2-0 by a combined score of 66-23.

Obviously the key to Sunday afternoon’s meeting for Green Bay is Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. The Packers really haven’t been their usual dominant selves in that aspect of the game though, ranking 15th in the league in passing under 1st year head coach Matt Lafleur. Rodgers did throw for 422 last week vs. Philadelphia, but it was the first time breaking 235 on the year for the former MVP. Dallas has a top 7 defense which is putting pressure on Rodgers considering Green Bay is just 26th in the league in offensive rushing.

There’s also a lot more pressure on the Packers defense on Sunday as the offense will be missing top target Davante Adams. Normally you’d think the Green Bay defense would be up to the task as they gave up just 36 total points in the first three games of the year. Philadelphia may have exposed Mike Pettine’s unit last week though, compiling 176 yards on the ground. Green Bay did limit Carson Wentz to a 16/27 for 160 yard day but he also threw 3 TD to 0 INT.

Cowboys in Proverbial Bounce Back Game

NFL week 5 Packers at Cowboys free pick
Look for Elliott to be much better this week vs. Green Bay’s run defense.

Dallas needs to erase the film of last week’s excruciating (to watch) 10-12 loss in New Orleans. It was an unexpected offensive output for a team that put up 31+ points in each of their first three games of the season. Looking back at the Cowboys schedule up to that point though, the wins came against the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins so this team suddenly has some ‘legitimacy’ questions.

Zeke Elliott was completely bottled up last week vs. the Saints, running the ball 18 times for a mere 35 yards. Green Bay’s defensive strength has largely come vs. the pass (3rd in NFL at 188 ypg allowed) but they are giving up 142.2 ypg on the ground. It could be a big day for Elliott, which in term should allow Dak Prescott to get back on track. Prescott had 9 TD to 2 INT through the first three games of the year. The Cowboys QB would also love to connect early and often with former Packer Randal Cobb, who has just 14 catches and 1 TD on the year.

Dallas has a very underrated defense but a unit that will dictate the results of the NFL week 5 Packers at Cowboys free pick. New Orleans did run the ball 27 times for 117 yards last week, but threw for only 149. The Cowboys have held 3 of 4 opponents to 17 points or less so far, but haven’t faced near the caliber of QB as Rodgers.

NFL Week 5 Packers at Cowboys Free Pick

The Dallas running game is going to stress the GB defense in this one. Normally Rodgers could battle in a shootout, but with no Adams his next targets are Marques Valdez-Scantling, Geronimo Allen, and Jimmy Graham who has just 9 catches in 4 games. Throw in it’s the first time traveling for Green Bay in over a month and things are looking good for likely a 10+ point Dallas victory.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -4


Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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