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NFL Week 3 Titans at Jaguars Free Pick: Total 38.5

Number Has Dropped 10 Points Since Open

Apparently the NFL week 3 Titans at Jaguars free pick is one featuring two uninspiring offenses as oddsmakers have set the total at just 38.5. It’s true, you don’t exactly think Air Raid with the Tennessee and Jacksonville offenses but it doesn’t take much to hit an O/U of 38.5. The Titans put up 40+ the last time they went on the road in week one and Jacksonville allowed 40 in their season opening game at home. Even so, we’re all expecting 19-13 here, right?

Remember the Titans…From Week One Only

NFL week 3 Titans at Jaguars free pick
Derrick Henry ripped off a 99-yarder on a Thursday night vs. Jacksonville last year.

Tennessee looked like a possible dark horse contender in the AFC after they went in to Cleveland and dominated the Browns in week one 43-13. It was a quick snap back to reality in Nashville in week two though as the Colts rode a backup signal caller into town and left Music City with a 19-17 win. Both of those games leave a lot of questions for Tennessee ahead of the NFL week 3 Titans at Jaguars free pick.

The majority is probably on the under in Thursday night’s contest. A short week combined with two tedious offenses means Young Sheldon might be a more exciting TV watch. Can Tennessee find that offense from week one though? The Browns don’t have a horrible defense as they showed on Monday night and Derrick Henry ripped up Cleveland for 84 yards on 19 carries. Marcus Mariota also threw for 248 and 3 TD in that game. The thing is the Titans offense looked so mediocre last week, especially Mariota who was 19/28 for 154.

Tennessee may not score on Thursday, but their defense should also have no problem containing the Jacksonville offense. The Titans snagged 3 interceptions from Baker Mayfield in the opener and allowed just 146 yards passing to Jacoby Brissett in last week’s loss.  Through 2 games the Titans have the league’s #2 passing defense and are 6th in points allowed at just 16 per game.

Can Minshew Lead the Charge In Primetime?

NFL week 3 Titans at Jaguars free pick
Minshew had the Jaguars offense actually watchable in the 4th quarter last week vs. Houston.

The Jaguars didn’t get much out of the Nick Foles investment as their offseason acquisition is out likely for more than half the season with a broken collarbone. What they may have uncovered in the process however is a capable replacement in rookie Gardner Minshew, who had Jacksonville withing a missed 2 point conversion of an upset win in Houston as +7.5 underdogs.

The thing about wagering on the total in the NFL week 3 Titans at Jaguars free pick is that just because Jacksonville almost squeaked out a win last Sunday doesn’t mean it was because of an electric offensive performance. Minshew was 23/33 for 213 and a TD…but the Jaguars still lost 12-13. That was after a 26-40 loss in week one where the rookie was thrown into action. What’s worse for the Jaguars is that they are getting no run game production to take pressure off the rookie QB. Leonard Fournette has run for 66 and 47 yards through two games and is up against a solid Titans D again on Thursday.

What is a bright spot for Jacksonville is that their defense played much better last week. Then again that tends to happen when you don’t play Kansas City. The Chiefs threw for 378 and ran for 113 in week one but the Jaguars held Houston to 137 and 126 respectively last Sunday.

NFL Week 3 Titans at Jaguars Free Pick

Thursday night’s contest is a great one for “they’re due” bettors trying to take the over. This is because the two games between the teams last season ended in a 9-6 Titans win and a 9-30 Titans win that actually hit the over of 37.5. The Jags also lost 16-37 two years ago in the first meeting followed by a 10-15 defeat later in the season. That means in the last four games, Jacksonville is averaging just 11 ppg vs. the Titans. What you also take out of that is that Tennessee has had no problem scoring on this ‘vaunted’ Jaguars defense. The Jacksonville offense should ironically be better with the gunslinging Minshew under center as well meaning points should be coming.

Pick: Titans / Jaguars *Over* 38.5

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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