We may not get much of a Festivus feat of strength on Saturday night, as Buffalo is expected to win big even on the road across the country in the week 16 Bills at Chargers betting matchup. Los Angeles (5-9) has a couple extra days of rest after last Thursday’s 63-21 loss to the Raiders, but they also have a new coach and a new GM after Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco were fired Friday morning.
The Bills are -12.5 favorites on Saturday night in what is a must-win considering Buffalo is still sitting at just the #9 seed in the AFC despite being 8-6 on the season. 65% of the public bettors are still banking on the Bills to get a blowout win in this spot with the Chargers being in such disarray.
Why Buffalo Has Value at -12.5
This feels like the point of the season where we’re going to look back at Buffalo’s surge when they represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Over their past three games the Bills have lost by a field goal in OT at Philadelphia, won on the road at Kansas City 20-17, and then last Sunday demolished another NFC playoff team Dallas by the score of 31-10.
Fans will not see a potential Josh Allen vs. Justin Herbert QB showdown, as the Chargers QB is out for the season after having surgery on his finger. Allen is still playing well though with 3,541 yards on the season and he gets to face a Chargers defense that ranks 30th in the NFL giving up 261.4 yards/game.
Easton Stick will get the start for the Chargers, which on paper looks like a break for the Bills after they’ve faced Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott the last three games. Buffalo has only allowed 13.5 ppg against Mahomes and Prescott so they should be able to dominate a player making just his 2nd NFL start.
Why the Chargers Have Value at +12.5
Even though the Bills are in the hunt for a playoff spot, they are probably looking past a disgruntled Chargers team after facing the Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys the last three games. Throw in the fact that Buffalo is traveling across the country as well while also finishing up the regular season against divisional foes New England and Miami and this looks like a perfect spot for a Bills hiccup.
Los Angeles was humiliated the last time we saw them, getting down 42-0 at the half against the Raiders as Las Vegas rookie QB Aidan O’Connell threw 4 TDs in the first half. That resulted in the Chargers cleaning house with their coach and GM which could put the team into turmoil – but sometimes a fresh start can reinvigorate a team.
The Chargers don’t have as much offensive potential without Herbert under center, but Stick was 23/32 for 257 yards with 3 TDs in his first NFL start. The young QB should be a bit more relaxed in game two – plus it’s not like L.A. was tearing it up on offense anyways scoring 10 points or less from week 12-14.
Free Week 16 Bills at Chargers Betting Pick
Buffalo is obviously the better team with more to play for here, but the Bills also just went through a gauntlet of three playoff teams and have to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast and on Christmas weekend. Buffalo is going to be a bit distracted and fatigued here – while the Chargers will be reinvigorated after finally firing Staley.
Free Pick: Chargers +12.5