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NFL Week 13 Raiders at Chiefs Free Pick

Kansas City Giving 11 Points Seems Like a Lot in Division Matchup

Oddsmakers aren’t giving visiting Oakland much of a chance in the NFL week 13 Raiders at Chiefs free pick. Kansas City is an 11 point home favorite on Sunday despite being just 2-3 at Arrowhead Stadium on the year. The Raiders did lose by 18 to the Chiefs in Oakland earlier in the season, is it much of the same on the menu as the calendar switches to December?

Does Oakland Have Last Week Behind Them?

NFL week 13 Raiders at Chiefs free pick
Jacobs had some good rushes vs. KC in the first meeting.

The Raiders were riding the momentum bus with three straight wins heading into last week vs. the Jets. Not only did the wheels fall off, the whole engine exploded as Oakland laid a total egg in a 3-34 loss as -3.5 road favorites. The Raiders had 22 carries for just 68 yards in that game and Derek Carr went only 15/27 for 127.

Oakland’s 3-game win streak was all at home. They didn’t look great going on the road for the 1st time last week and now have 3 losses of 18+ points in their 5 away games on the year. The Raiders did get a win in Indianapolis in week 4, but there’s a big difference between the Chiefs and Colts. Of course, one of the differences is that the Chiefs defense is much worse than Indianapolis’. The Raiders have a top 15 offense on the year and KC can especially be exploited through their #30 ranked rush defense. Josh Jacobs had 99 yards on just 12 carries in the first matchup with the Chiefs.

The Raiders 3-game win streak was not only all at home, it was against some pretty bad teams in Detroit, the Chargers, and Cincinnati. The Raiders defense played another bad team in the Jets and were lit up for a 20/29, 315, 2/0 day from Sam Darnold. How is that defense going to fare against the Chiefs’ #2 passing offense – one coming off a bye as well?

Kansas City Not Blowing Out Teams Lately

NFL week 13 Raiders at Chiefs free pick
The bye week should give KC a healthy Tyreek Hill (hamstring) as well.

The Chiefs do have an advantage in coming off a bye week and coach Andy Reid has compiled a 17-3 record after being idle. Few people are debating that Kansas City will win this game, but do they keep the foot on the gas to cover the -11 in the NFL week 13 Raiders at Chiefs free pick?

Kansas City is just 2-3 at home on the year and 3-4 in their last 7 on the season overall. Of the Chiefs’ last 5 wins, only one has been by more than a TD in what was a 30-6 thumping at Denver. Patrick Mahomes looked great after missing two weeks with a knee injury, throwing for 446 and 3 TD in week 10 vs. Tennessee. He was mediocre vs. the Chargers two weeks ago though, going 19/32 for 182 with 1/1. Mahomes did have 443 with 4/0 vs. the Raiders earlier this season though.

The reason Chiefs games are close isn’t because of their offense – they’ve scored 24+ in six straight games. It’s that defense that has allowed 30+ in half of the last 8 tilts. The Raiders have allowed 24+ in 5 of the last 6 though so the 50 point total for Sunday’s game is very warranted – if not low.

NFL Week 13 Free Pick Raiders at Chiefs

It’s Reid and Mahomes coming off a bye week being able to do whatever they want on offense. The Raiders struggled on offense in the trip to the East Coast vs. the Jets, but are back at least to an afternoon game in a familiar spot in KC on Sunday. The Raiders should be able to run the ball enough to keep things close here, and Carr has improved with just 3 INTs in his last 6 games. Oakland was decimated by 2 Carr picks in the first meeting. With that defense, 11 points is just a bit high.

Pick: Oakland Raiders +11

 

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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