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NFL Week 12 Bills at Eagles Betting Preview

Many People Starting to Bail on Buffalo

In the stock market one of the best strategies is to buy low and sell high, which is a great analogy for Sunday afternoon’s Bills at Eagles betting matchup. Buffalo (6-5) was a Super Bowl darling at the beginning of the season but have lost three of their last five and most people think that negative trend will continue on the road at Lincoln Financial Field.

You can’t get much higher than the Eagles (9-1) who can clinch the first ticket to the playoffs of any team in the league with a win on Sunday. Philly has rattled off four straight wins including a Super Bowl rematch beating the Chiefs 21-17 on Monday night. Philadelphia is just a -3 point favorite on Sunday afternoon, which does have a bit of a trap feel to it.

Why the Bills Have Value at +3

Nobody would blink if the oddsmakers would have made Buffalo a +5 or higher underdog on Sunday, which makes you wonder why the line is just Bills +3. Buffalo has played three of their last four games at home including two straight, and have gone 1-3 on the road this season – not to mention the Eagles are 4-0 at home this year.

Buffalo is coming off a fairly relaxing 32-6 victory over the Jets last week which is a good number to put up against a very solid defense. The Bills ran for 130 yards in that game while QB Josh Allen threw for 275 yards and 3 TDs which is important for a guy who has had some issues over the past month.

Maybe this game is a bet against the Eagles instead of a wager on the Bills, because Philadelphia is on the short week following an emotional 21-17 revenge game win on Monday night in Kansas City. That’s a short turnaround for another meeting with what is expected to be an AFC powerhouse.

Why the Eagles Have Value at -3

Lincoln Financial Field has once again proven to be one of the hardest places for a road team to go into and get a win, as the Eagles are 4-0 on their own turf this season. The players may be a bit mentally exhausted from the visit to the Chiefs on Monday night, but the fans aren’t and Buffalo has lost games at the Jets, at the Patriots, and at the Bengals this season.

The Philadelphia defense shut out the Chiefs in the second half last week – not an easy feat against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and company. Allen played good for the Bills last Sunday, but he also threw another INT – his 8th in the last seven games. When you’ve got a guy with some turnover issues playing in one of the most hostile environments in the league it may not go well for the Bills.

While Allen is a bit iffy for Sunday’s matchup, fewer QBs in the league are playing better than Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts right now. Hurts ran for two TDs in the 2nd half against the Chiefs and has thrown 8 TD passes in his last four games.

Free Week 12 Bills at Eagles Betting Pick

The tempting play is on the Eagles here, as they are such a good team at home and looked great on Monday beating the Chiefs. That being said, the line is telling you to take the Bills. Buffalo should be a much bigger underdog and a line that looks too easy almost never is.

Free Pick: Bills +3

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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