It’s been a long time coming for Detroit fans who have waited 30 years to host a playoff game. They’ll get that chance in the wild card Rams at Lions betting matchup up against a man who was in Motown for 12 of those years as Matthew Stafford leads Los Angeles up against his former team at Ford Field.
The Lions are the -3 point favorite at home on Sunday night, but there’s value on a Rams team that won 7 of their last 8 down the stretch. Detroit is 6-2 at home though, and this crowd is going to be absolutely fervent in such a historical moment for the franchise. 66% of the betting public is a bit leery on the home team, taking Los Angeles and the points.
Why the Rams Have Value at +3 Points
There might not be anybody on the Lions more comfortable playing at Ford Field than their opposing QB Stafford, who spent 12 years with the Lions as a former #1 pick. Stafford didn’t have a ton of postseason success with Detroit going 0-3, but he put that narrative to bed in leading these Rams to a win in Super Bowl LVI.
Stafford has commanded the Rams offense nicely this season, getting WR Puka Nacua the NFL rookie records in receptions (105) and yards (1486). Nacua and Cooper Kupp (100+ yards in two of last four) should find plenty of holes against a Detroit defense that ranked 27th in the league in pass yardage allowed – and if not they also have a 1,100+, 12 TD runner in Kyren Williams.
The Rams should come into Sunday’s game well rested also, with many starters sitting out last weekend with their playoff spot locked in. Detroit played things normal last week as they had a chance at the #2 seed in the NFC, and they had some guys get banged up in a 30-20 win over Minnesota most notably star rookie TE Sam LaPorta who left with a knee injury.
Why the Lions Have Value at -3 Points
Even though the Lions won their first ever NFC North crown this season and are hosting their first playoff game since 1993, Detroit still isn’t getting any respect with 66% of the betting public going against you on Sunday night. That’s what happens when you haven’t won a playoff game since 1991, but it also gives Dan Campbell’s guys plenty of motivation to rewrite the narrative around this team.
Lost in the hubbub about Stafford’s return to Ford Field is the fact the guy who was part of his trade – Jared Goff – has had a pretty great year with the Lions. Goff threw for over 4,500 yards with 30 TDs this season with a 67% completion rate and has some revenge to prove as the Rams didn’t believe in him to be the guy that could win them a Super Bowl.
The Rams have some great offensive weapons – but so does Detroit. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 115 catches for over 1500 yards this year and is moving into one of the league’s elite if he’s not already there. LaPorta is already a top 5 TE in the NFL and the Lions had two backs amass over 900 yards rushing this season in David Montgomery and Jahmir Gibbs.
Free Wild Card Rams at Lions Betting Pick
It’s hard to go against Stafford’s postseason experience, but Detroit has the talent to go neck and neck with the Rams as well. Ultimately though, Campbell takes way too many chances to sustain in a high tension playoff game.
Free Pick: Rams +3